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TurkmenistanTM

climbing (+7.8pp)

30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.

Peak day
26.6%
d13 · 2026-06-21
Floor day
9.4%
d1 · 2026-06-09
30-day delta
+7.8pp
d30 vs d1 probability

30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band

model trajectory_v1
0%25%50%75%d1d7d14d21d30peak d13 27%
mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day

Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)

day 19.4%
2026-06-09
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.012
  • block_rate_roll7_std-0.008
  • week_of_year-0.007
day 715.1%
2026-06-15
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.012
  • block_rate_roll7_std-0.008
  • week_of_year-0.007
day 1424.0%
2026-06-22
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.012
  • block_rate_roll7_std-0.008
  • week_of_year-0.007
day 3017.2%
2026-07-08
  • gdelt_unrest_30d-0.012
  • block_rate_roll7_std-0.008
  • week_of_year-0.007

Honest caveats

  • Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
  • Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
  • Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
  • Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
  • SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.

Sample horizons

DayDateP(shutdown)90% interval
d12026-06-099.4%[0%, 53%]
d72026-06-1515.1%[0%, 80%]
d142026-06-2224.0%[0%, 93%]
d302026-07-0817.2%[0%, 95%]
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