Turkmenistan TM
stable (-0.1pp)Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Peak day
12.2%
d11 · 2026-10-17
Floor day
3.6%
d9 · 2026-10-15
30-day delta
-0.1pp
d30 vs d1 probability
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 18.3%
2026-10-07
- risk_tier-0.052
- month-0.042
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.038
day 76.3%
2026-10-13
- risk_tier-0.052
- month-0.042
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.038
day 144.0%
2026-10-20
- risk_tier-0.052
- month-0.042
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.038
day 308.2%
2026-11-05
- risk_tier-0.052
- month-0.042
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.038
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-10-07 | 8.3% | [0%, 52%] |
| d7 | 2026-10-13 | 6.3% | [0%, 71%] |
| d14 | 2026-10-20 | 4.0% | [0%, 73%] |
| d30 | 2026-11-05 | 8.2% | [0%, 87%] |
Spotlight countries
About this view
30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.