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Turkmenistan TM

stable (+1.6pp)

Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.

30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band

model trajectory_v1
0%25%50%75%d1d7d14d21d30peak d5 19%
mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Peak day
18.5%
d5 · 2026-10-10
Floor day
3.6%
d17 · 2026-10-22
30-day delta
+1.6pp
d30 vs d1 probability

Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)

day 16.7%
2026-10-06
  • block_rate_roll30_mean-0.044
  • week_of_year-0.042
  • month-0.022
day 76.3%
2026-10-12
  • block_rate_roll30_mean-0.044
  • week_of_year-0.042
  • month-0.022
day 144.0%
2026-10-19
  • block_rate_roll30_mean-0.044
  • week_of_year-0.042
  • month-0.022
day 308.2%
2026-11-04
  • block_rate_roll30_mean-0.044
  • week_of_year-0.042
  • month-0.022

Honest caveats

  • Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
  • Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
  • Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
  • Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
  • SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.

Sample horizons

DayDateP(shutdown)90% interval
d12026-10-066.7%[0%, 51%]
d72026-10-126.3%[0%, 71%]
d142026-10-194.0%[0%, 73%]
d302026-11-048.2%[0%, 87%]
Spotlight countries
About this view

30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.