AzerbaijanAZ
climbing (+46.8pp)30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.
Peak day
73.1%
d23 · 2026-07-29
Floor day
11.8%
d4 · 2026-07-10
30-day delta
+46.8pp
d30 vs d1 probability
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 115.7%
2026-07-07
- critical_incident_7d+0.028
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.020
- block_rate_roll7_mean+0.018
day 721.3%
2026-07-13
- critical_incident_7d+0.028
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.020
- block_rate_roll7_mean+0.018
day 1453.2%
2026-07-20
- critical_incident_7d+0.028
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.020
- block_rate_roll7_mean+0.018
day 3062.5%
2026-08-05
- critical_incident_7d+0.028
- gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.020
- block_rate_roll7_mean+0.018
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-07-07 | 15.7% | [0%, 60%] |
| d7 | 2026-07-13 | 21.3% | [0%, 86%] |
| d14 | 2026-07-20 | 53.2% | [0%, 100%] |
| d30 | 2026-08-05 | 62.5% | [0%, 100%] |
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