TajikistanTJ
climbing (+24.9pp)30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.
Peak day
59.7%
d23 · 2026-06-14
Floor day
25.4%
d2 · 2026-05-24
30-day delta
+24.9pp
d30 vs d1 probability
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 126.5%
2026-05-23
- week_of_year+0.029
- incident_count_7d-0.027
- recent_shutdown+0.021
day 755.8%
2026-05-29
- week_of_year+0.029
- incident_count_7d-0.027
- recent_shutdown+0.021
day 1446.9%
2026-06-05
- week_of_year+0.029
- incident_count_7d-0.027
- recent_shutdown+0.021
day 3051.5%
2026-06-21
- week_of_year+0.029
- incident_count_7d-0.027
- recent_shutdown+0.021
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-05-23 | 26.5% | [0%, 70%] |
| d7 | 2026-05-29 | 55.8% | [0%, 100%] |
| d14 | 2026-06-05 | 46.9% | [0%, 100%] |
| d30 | 2026-06-21 | 51.5% | [0%, 100%] |
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