Sentinel case studies

Case studies: predictions that landed

Each case study takes one event where the Voidly Sentinel forecast model crossed its alert threshold and was then followed by a confirmed, independently-citable incident. We publish the day-by-day forecast trajectory, the SHAP top features, the incident ID, the external corroboration, and the rolling-window precision/recall so a reader can decide for themselves how much weight to put on the prediction.

For the model’s full track record — including the false positives — see /sentinel/backtest and the live calibration curve.

LB6.5d lead2026-05-21
Voidly Sentinel called the April 24 Lebanon connectivity drop 6.5 days early
On 2026-04-18, Voidly Sentinel placed Lebanon’s 7-day shutdown probability at 0.069 — 38% above its 0.05 alert threshold. Six and a half days later, IODA flagged a critical BGP-level connectivity drop in North Lebanon. The model never dropped below threshold during the run.
#sentinel#forecast#shutdown#lebanon

New case studies ship when a Sentinel alert is followed by a citable, independently-corroborated incident. Subscribe to the Atom feed for new case studies + every confirmed incident.

Voidly Sentinel called the April 24 Lebanon connectivity drop 6.5 days early