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stable (+1.0pp)30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.
Peak day
10.5%
d14 · 2026-09-03
Floor day
1.0%
d10 · 2026-08-30
30-day delta
+1.0pp
d30 vs d1 probability
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 12.4%
2026-08-21
- month-0.072
- week_of_year-0.054
- risk_tier-0.045
day 72.4%
2026-08-27
- month-0.072
- week_of_year-0.054
- risk_tier-0.045
day 1410.5%
2026-09-03
- month-0.072
- week_of_year-0.054
- risk_tier-0.045
day 303.4%
2026-09-19
- month-0.072
- week_of_year-0.054
- risk_tier-0.045
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-08-21 | 2.4% | [0%, 46%] |
| d7 | 2026-08-27 | 2.4% | [0%, 67%] |
| d14 | 2026-09-03 | 10.5% | [0%, 79%] |
| d30 | 2026-09-19 | 3.4% | [0%, 82%] |
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