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Sentinel · global forecast

7-day shutdown risk by country

30 watched countries, ranked by the calibrated max risk over the next 7 days. The forecast is post-isotonic recalibrated as of 2026-05-20 — predictions in the [0, 0.10) band are now lifted ~15× to match observed outcomes. See /sentinel/backtest for the honest calibration plot.

Updated every 30 min · last refresh May 21, 2026 · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON

High
18
≥ 50%
Elevated
0
30–49%
Watch
0
15–29%
Low
12
< 15%

Biggest movers — last 7 days

vs 2026-05-14 → 2026-05-21
↑ Risk increased

Source: /v1/sentinel/movers joins today's and 7-day-prior snapshots from sentinel_forecasts. Min |Δ| 0.02 to suppress noise. Some current jumps are an artifact of the May 20 isotonic recalibration — see the refit finding.

Full ranking

How to read this page

  • Max risk is the highest daily forecast probability in the next 7 days for that country. Click into /atlas/forecast/[cc] for the full 8-day chart + SHAP drivers + evidence.
  • Calibration — predictions for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries are run through an isotonic calibrator fit on 810 live (predicted, observed) pairs. The other ~120 countries get the raw model output.
  • Honesty — the model isn't magic. See /sentinel/backtest for current Brier score / per-bin Δ, and /methodology#validation for the three honest splits (LOCO, stratified, time-based).
  • Subscribe — push delivery via webhooks at /alerts, or hit POST /v1/forecast/batch for programmatic access.

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