Kazakhstan KZ
falling (-45.8pp)Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Peak day
78.2%
d6 · 2026-09-22
Floor day
15.1%
d29 · 2026-10-15
30-day delta
-45.8pp
d30 vs d1 probability
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 170.9%
2026-09-17
- critical_incident_7d+0.071
- block_rate_lag1-0.066
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.051
day 739.6%
2026-09-23
- critical_incident_7d+0.071
- block_rate_lag1-0.066
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.051
day 1454.3%
2026-09-30
- critical_incident_7d+0.071
- block_rate_lag1-0.066
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.051
day 3025.0%
2026-10-16
- critical_incident_7d+0.071
- block_rate_lag1-0.066
- block_rate_roll7_mean-0.051
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-09-17 | 70.9% | [27%, 100%] |
| d7 | 2026-09-23 | 39.6% | [0%, 100%] |
| d14 | 2026-09-30 | 54.3% | [0%, 100%] |
| d30 | 2026-10-16 | 25.0% | [0%, 100%] |
Spotlight countries
About this view
30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.