IranIR
falling (-29.3pp)30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.
Peak day
52.6%
d2 · 2026-06-10
Floor day
2.3%
d16 · 2026-06-24
30-day delta
-29.3pp
d30 vs d1 probability
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 140.6%
2026-06-09
- gdelt_unrest_30d-0.013
- week_of_year-0.009
- risk_tier-0.007
day 736.9%
2026-06-15
- gdelt_unrest_30d-0.013
- week_of_year-0.009
- risk_tier-0.007
day 148.3%
2026-06-22
- gdelt_unrest_30d-0.013
- week_of_year-0.009
- risk_tier-0.007
day 3011.3%
2026-07-08
- gdelt_unrest_30d-0.013
- week_of_year-0.009
- risk_tier-0.007
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-06-09 | 40.6% | [0%, 84%] |
| d7 | 2026-06-15 | 36.9% | [0%, 100%] |
| d14 | 2026-06-22 | 8.3% | [0%, 77%] |
| d30 | 2026-07-08 | 11.3% | [0%, 90%] |
Spotlight countries