Iran IR
stable (+2.6pp)Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Peak day
9.4%
d19 · 2026-10-27
Floor day
1.5%
d7 · 2026-10-15
30-day delta
+2.6pp
d30 vs d1 probability
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 11.9%
2026-10-09
- risk_tier-0.082
- week_of_year-0.050
- verified_signals_7d-0.021
day 71.5%
2026-10-15
- risk_tier-0.082
- week_of_year-0.050
- verified_signals_7d-0.021
day 147.3%
2026-10-22
- risk_tier-0.082
- week_of_year-0.050
- verified_signals_7d-0.021
day 304.5%
2026-11-07
- risk_tier-0.082
- week_of_year-0.050
- verified_signals_7d-0.021
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-10-09 | 1.9% | [0%, 46%] |
| d7 | 2026-10-15 | 1.5% | [0%, 66%] |
| d14 | 2026-10-22 | 7.3% | [0%, 76%] |
| d30 | 2026-11-07 | 4.5% | [0%, 83%] |
Spotlight countries
About this view
30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.