voidly
← Atlas

IranIR

stable (+0.7pp)

30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.

Peak day
8.2%
d14 · 2026-09-03
Floor day
1.2%
d7 · 2026-08-27
30-day delta
+0.7pp
d30 vs d1 probability

30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band

model trajectory_v1
0%25%50%75%d1d7d14d21d30peak d14 8%
mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day

Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)

day 11.9%
2026-08-21
  • month-0.090
  • week_of_year-0.075
  • block_rate_roll30_mean+0.049
day 71.2%
2026-08-27
  • month-0.090
  • week_of_year-0.075
  • block_rate_roll30_mean+0.049
day 148.2%
2026-09-03
  • month-0.090
  • week_of_year-0.075
  • block_rate_roll30_mean+0.049
day 302.6%
2026-09-19
  • month-0.090
  • week_of_year-0.075
  • block_rate_roll30_mean+0.049

Honest caveats

  • Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
  • Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
  • Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
  • Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
  • SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.

Sample horizons

DayDateP(shutdown)90% interval
d12026-08-211.9%[0%, 46%]
d72026-08-271.2%[0%, 66%]
d142026-09-038.2%[0%, 77%]
d302026-09-192.6%[0%, 81%]
Spotlight countries