Iran IR
climbing (+6.3pp)Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Peak day
30.6%
d15 · 2026-10-20
Floor day
2.1%
d3 · 2026-10-08
30-day delta
+6.3pp
d30 vs d1 probability
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 12.6%
2026-10-06
- week_of_year-0.051
- risk_tier-0.049
- month-0.046
day 72.5%
2026-10-12
- week_of_year-0.051
- risk_tier-0.049
- month-0.046
day 1421.6%
2026-10-19
- week_of_year-0.051
- risk_tier-0.049
- month-0.046
day 308.9%
2026-11-04
- week_of_year-0.051
- risk_tier-0.049
- month-0.046
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-10-06 | 2.6% | [0%, 47%] |
| d7 | 2026-10-12 | 2.5% | [0%, 67%] |
| d14 | 2026-10-19 | 21.6% | [0%, 90%] |
| d30 | 2026-11-04 | 8.9% | [0%, 87%] |
Spotlight countries
About this view
30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.