EgyptEG

climbing (+23.9pp)

30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.

Peak day

69.8%

d14 · 2026-09-04

Floor day

0.4%

d1 · 2026-08-22

30-day delta

+23.9pp

d30 vs d1 probability

30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band

model trajectory_v1

mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day

Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)

day 10.4%

2026-08-22

week_of_year-0.057
month-0.034
critical_incident_7d+0.023

day 714.6%

2026-08-28

week_of_year-0.057
month-0.034
critical_incident_7d+0.023

day 1469.8%

2026-09-04

week_of_year-0.057
month-0.034
critical_incident_7d+0.023

day 3024.3%

2026-09-20

week_of_year-0.057
month-0.034
critical_incident_7d+0.023

Honest caveats

Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.

Sample horizons

Day	Date	P(shutdown)	90% interval
d1	2026-08-22	0.4%	[0%, 44%]
d7	2026-08-28	14.6%	[0%, 79%]
d14	2026-09-04	69.8%	[1%, 100%]
d30	2026-09-20	24.3%	[0%, 100%]

Spotlight countries