Turkey TR
climbing (+13.9pp)Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.
30-day trajectory with 90% conformal band
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)90% conformal bandpeak day
Peak day
64.1%
d22 · 2026-10-08
Floor day
1.5%
d3 · 2026-09-19
30-day delta
+13.9pp
d30 vs d1 probability
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 116.9%
2026-09-17
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.175
- month-0.123
- critical_incident_7d+0.099
day 729.6%
2026-09-23
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.175
- month-0.123
- critical_incident_7d+0.099
day 1456.2%
2026-09-30
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.175
- month-0.123
- critical_incident_7d+0.099
day 3030.8%
2026-10-16
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.175
- month-0.123
- critical_incident_7d+0.099
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- Conformal bands are absolute-residual q90 from LOCO predictions on 18 eval countries.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have wider effective uncertainty than the conformal q90 suggests; the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Bands floor at [0,1]; probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-09-17 | 16.9% | [0%, 61%] |
| d7 | 2026-09-23 | 29.6% | [0%, 94%] |
| d14 | 2026-09-30 | 56.2% | [0%, 100%] |
| d30 | 2026-10-16 | 30.8% | [0%, 100%] |
Spotlight countries
About this view
30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost prediction (h=1..30) with a 90% conformal band derived from absolute LOCO residuals. Peak risk highlighted.