Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.
This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.
Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].
ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row).
Complete returned record
{
"aci": {
"active": false,
"reason": "unverified: training holdout and ACI outcomes do not match the served headline or qualified target"
},
"aci_alpha": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"country": "BG",
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"covered": true,
"forecast": [
{
"date": "2026-10-08",
"day": 0,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 17d"
],
"risk": 0.033
},
{
"date": "2026-10-09",
"day": 1,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 16d"
],
"risk": 0.025
},
{
"date": "2026-10-10",
"day": 2,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 15d"
],
"risk": 0.048
},
{
"date": "2026-10-11",
"day": 3,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 14d"
],
"risk": 0.027
},
{
"date": "2026-10-12",
"day": 4,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 13d"
],
"risk": 0.07
},
{
"date": "2026-10-13",
"day": 5,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 12d"
],
"risk": 0.075
},
{
"date": "2026-10-14",
"day": 6,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 11d"
],
"risk": 0.083
},
{
"date": "2026-10-15",
"day": 7,
"drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 10d"
],
"risk": 0.064
}
],
"generated_at": "2026-10-08T18:44:28.196399",
"honest_caveat": {
"confidence_is": "fixed in-sample model confidence, NOT a per-forecast calibrated probability",
"correct_use": "Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.",
"detects_change_not_state": "This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.",
"headline_auc_note": "Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].",
"honest_temporal_holdout_auc": "~0.85-0.90 (dual-holdout temporal gate)",
"live_forward_accountability": [
"GET /v1/sentinel/accuracy (503 unvalidated; empirical precision/recall withheld)",
"GET /v1/forecast/onset-skill (honest onset / forward skill)"
],
"source": "ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row)."
},
"interval_90": null,
"model_version": "v1",
"summary": {
"avg_risk": 0.053,
"key_drivers": [
"Bulgarian Presidency in 15d",
"Bulgarian Presidency in 11d",
"Bulgarian Presidency in 12d",
"Bulgarian Presidency in 16d",
"Bulgarian Presidency in 10d"
],
"max_risk": 0.083,
"max_risk_day": 6
},
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": -0.0684,
"direction": "down",
"name": "week_of_year"
},
{
"contribution": -0.0269,
"direction": "down",
"name": "block_rate_roll7_mean"
},
{
"contribution": -0.0256,
"direction": "down",
"name": "block_rate_roll30_mean"
}
],
"top_features_per_day": [
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-08",
"day": 0,
"risk": 0.033,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0246,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 17d",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
},
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-09",
"day": 1,
"risk": 0.025,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0259,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 16d",
"source": "overlay"
},
{
"contribution": 0.005,
"direction": "up",
"name": "day_decay_t+1",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
},
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-10",
"day": 2,
"risk": 0.048,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0273,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 15d",
"source": "overlay"
},
{
"contribution": 0.01,
"direction": "up",
"name": "day_decay_t+2",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
},
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-11",
"day": 3,
"risk": 0.027,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0288,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 14d",
"source": "overlay"
},
{
"contribution": 0.015,
"direction": "up",
"name": "day_decay_t+3",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
},
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-12",
"day": 4,
"risk": 0.07,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0306,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 13d",
"source": "overlay"
},
{
"contribution": 0.02,
"direction": "up",
"name": "day_decay_t+4",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
},
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-13",
"day": 5,
"risk": 0.075,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0326,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 12d",
"source": "overlay"
},
{
"contribution": 0.025,
"direction": "up",
"name": "day_decay_t+5",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
},
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-14",
"day": 6,
"risk": 0.083,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0349,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 11d",
"source": "overlay"
},
{
"contribution": 0.03,
"direction": "up",
"name": "day_decay_t+6",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
},
{
"base_prob": 0,
"date": "2026-10-15",
"day": 7,
"risk": 0.064,
"top_features": [
{
"contribution": 0.0375,
"direction": "up",
"name": "event:Bulgarian Presidency in 10d",
"source": "overlay"
},
{
"contribution": 0.035,
"direction": "up",
"name": "day_decay_t+7",
"source": "overlay"
}
]
}
]
}