The Voidly Atlas Score v2
Composite censorship score per country, 0–100, A–F grades. v2 fixes the v1 bug where chronic-blockers (RU, CN, KP) graded B− despite heavy structural censorship, because v1 over-weighted change-vs-level. v2 adds a 50% structural baseline so chronic blockers grade correctly.
Updated every 10 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · v1 (legacy)
Top grade movers (v1 → v2)
Countries whose letter grade changed when we switched from v1 (change-weighted) to v2 (level-aware). Positive = stricter (e.g. B− → F because chronic baseline now counts); negative = looser (e.g. D → C because acute spike was overweighted in v1).
30 watched countries · v2 vs v1
| # | Country | v2 grade | v1 grade | v2 score | v1 score | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt EG | D | C | 67.1 | 63.6 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Iran IR | D | B | 65.8 | 36.1 | +29.7 |
| 3 | Venezuela VE | D | C | 61.4 | 63.6 | -2.2 |
| 4 | Pakistan PK | C | B- | 59.7 | 33.9 | +25.8 |
| 5 | China CN | C | B- | 59.0 | 25.4 | +33.6 |
| 6 | Uzbekistan UZ | C | B | 57.8 | 38.8 | +19.0 |
| 7 | Eritrea ER | C | B- | 56.8 | 24.2 | +32.6 |
| 8 | Turkmenistan TM | C | B- | 56.8 | 23.9 | +32.9 |
| 9 | North Korea KP | C | B- | 56.4 | 24.2 | +32.2 |
| 10 | Nigeria NG | C | C | 55.7 | 64.2 | -8.5 |
| 11 | Nicaragua NI | C | C | 52.1 | 63.9 | -11.8 |
| 12 | India IN | C | C | 51.3 | 53.6 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Azerbaijan AZ | C | — | 50.1 | — | — |
| 14 | Saudi Arabia SA | C | B- | 49.5 | 34.0 | +15.5 |
| 15 | Vietnam VN | C | B- | 49.4 | 33.2 | +16.2 |
| 16 | Syria SY | C | B- | 47.9 | 24.4 | +23.5 |
| 17 | Russia RU | C | B- | 47.2 | 24.0 | +23.2 |
| 18 | Belarus BY | C | B- | 46.9 | 24.2 | +22.7 |
| 19 | Lebanon LB | C | B- | 46.4 | 33.8 | +12.6 |
| 20 | Cuba CU | C | B- | 46.3 | 24.4 | +21.9 |
| 21 | Myanmar MM | C | B- | 45.5 | 33.4 | +12.1 |
| 22 | Tanzania TZ | C | — | 45.1 | — | — |
| 23 | Bangladesh BD | B | B- | 44.2 | 33.7 | +10.5 |
| 24 | JO JO | B | — | 43.5 | — | — |
| 25 | South Sudan SS | B | — | 42.6 | — | — |
| 26 | Kazakhstan KZ | B | B- | 42.2 | 33.7 | +8.5 |
| 27 | Thailand TH | B | B- | 41.0 | 34.4 | +6.6 |
| 28 | Turkey TR | B | B- | 39.5 | 28.1 | +11.4 |
| 29 | Ethiopia ET | B | B- | 38.9 | 26.8 | +12.1 |
| 30 | IQ IQ | B | — | 38.1 | — | — |
Why v2 — fixing change-vs-level
v1 of the Atlas Score weighted CHANGE (forecast + trend + recent incidents) at 90% and LEVEL (calibration quality) at only 10%. The consequence: countries like Russia and China graded B− despite heavy ongoing censorship, simply because nothing was actively changing this week. Egypt and Iran — same risk tier but spiking — graded D−F.
v2 adds a 50% structural baseline component derived from the past 12 months of censorship-weighted incidents, with a curated risk-tier floor for probe-blind countries (KP, TM, ER). Censorship incidents are weighted 3× heavier than network disruptions to discount upstream-outage noise. Confidence is tracked separately (0–1 field) and does not add to the score.
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Structural baseline (12mo censorship + tier floor) | 50 pts |
| 30-day average forecast probability | 20 pts |
| Current 7-day max risk (active spike) | 15 pts |
| 24h incident density | 10 pts |
| Anomaly disagreement signal | 5 pts |
v2 fixes v1's change-vs-level bug. Chronic-blocking countries (RU/CN/KP) now score high based on their 12-month baseline + curated risk tier. v1 remains live at /v1/atlas/score for backward compatibility.
Related
- /atlas/score — v1 (still served for backward compatibility)
- /atlas/multi-horizon — 1d/7d/30d forecasts (v2 uses the 30d average)
- /atlas/changelog — full model registry timeline
- /atlas/models — per-model deep dive