7-day shutdown-risk estimate · validation pending

Bulgaria — 8% risk

A seven-day view of the current regime, with drivers and supporting evidence. This is not a shutdown-onset prediction.

Per-day risk

Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.

Reading this forecast & citation

The Voidly Sentinel model scores Bulgaria at a peak 8.3% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 6 (Wed, Oct 14). Average across the window: 5%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.

Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →

Per-day drivers

Date	Risk	Drivers
Thu, Oct 8	3% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 17d
Fri, Oct 9	3% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 16d
Sat, Oct 10	5% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 15d
Sun, Oct 11	3% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 14d
Mon, Oct 12	7% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 13d
Tue, Oct 13	8% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 12d
Wed, Oct 14	8% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 11d
Thu, Oct 15	6% · Low	Bulgarian Presidency in 10d

What drove the prediction

Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.

↓week_of_year-0.068
↓block_rate_roll7_mean-0.027
↓block_rate_roll30_mean-0.026

Similar past event

The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “8% risk for Bulgaria” looked like when it actually happened.

RU-2024-0007critical

Incident in RU · Date unavailable

Recent evidence

Live measurements from upstream networks supporting this forecast. Click any link to view the raw data on the source.

iodaoutagehttps://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/BG2026-10-08
iodaoutagehttps://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/BG2026-10-07
ooniokhttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=BG&test_name=web_connectivity&domain=chat.openai.com&since=2026-10-03&until=2026-10-042026-10-03

Honest caveats

What this forecast is — and is not

The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal: it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.

On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance.
The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window, so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill.
On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance.

Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the source-reported drivers. Interval coverage is unvalidated and the bounds are withheld here; do not use this as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →

The 2026-05-20 isotonic refit is historical. Its 810 archived pairs do not establish current calibration or onset skill.
A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. Source-reported interval fields have no verified empirical coverage here.
For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.

Model version: v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537

/bg — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
/atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
/sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
/v1/sentinel/current_risk/BG — raw JSON

About this view

Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · Bulgaria country profile →