Iran IR
climbing (+7.1pp)Follow the model’s 30-day path. Read the probability and uncertainty together.
30-day model trajectory
model trajectory_v1mean P(shutdown by day)Uncertainty interval withheld: 90% coverage has not been validated.peak day
Peak day
36.3%
d19 · 2026-10-31
Floor day
2.2%
d7 · 2026-10-19
30-day delta
+7.1pp
d30 vs d1 probability
Drivers (SHAP top 3 from the 7-day model — same features feed all horizons)
day 13.1%
2026-10-13
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.163
- risk_tier-0.100
- incident_count_7d-0.085
day 72.2%
2026-10-19
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.163
- risk_tier-0.100
- incident_count_7d-0.085
day 1421.6%
2026-10-26
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.163
- risk_tier-0.100
- incident_count_7d-0.085
day 3010.2%
2026-11-11
- block_rate_roll7_std-0.163
- risk_tier-0.100
- incident_count_7d-0.085
Honest caveats
- Per-horizon XGBoost stacked into a trajectory — not a true joint distribution.
- The stored LOCO absolute-residual widths are not validated 90% intervals for these forecast probabilities; intervals are withheld.
- Long horizons (h>=14d) have additional uncertainty because the same lag features feed all horizons.
- Probabilities below 0.05 are at the model's noise floor.
- SHAP attribution above is from the 7-day point model. The trajectory uses 30 separate per-horizon XGBoost models that share the same feature set; we have not yet computed per-horizon SHAP.
Sample horizons
| Day | Date | P(shutdown) | Interval status |
|---|---|---|---|
| d1 | 2026-10-13 | 3.1% | Unvalidated |
| d7 | 2026-10-19 | 2.2% | Unvalidated |
| d14 | 2026-10-26 | 21.6% | Unvalidated |
| d30 | 2026-11-11 | 10.2% | Unvalidated |
Spotlight countries
About this view
30-day day-by-day shutdown-risk trajectory. Each point is a per-horizon XGBoost model score (h=1..30). The stored LOCO residual widths are not validated probability intervals, so no uncertainty band is shown. Peak score highlighted.