Djibouti.

{
  "aci": {
    "active": true,
    "alpha": 0.098,
    "empirical_coverage": 0.8999,
    "last_updated": "2026-09-14T03:45:01.948338+00:00",
    "n_observations": 2518,
    "q_applied": 0.35,
    "q_raw": 0.9045
  },
  "aci_alpha": 0.098,
  "confidence": 0.85,
  "country": "DJ",
  "country_name": "Djibouti",
  "covered": true,
  "forecast": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-15",
      "day": 0,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.012
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "day": 1,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.015
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "day": 2,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.022
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "day": 3,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.025
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "day": 4,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.043
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "day": 5,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.026
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "day": 6,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.022
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "day": 7,
      "drivers": [],
      "risk": 0.021
    }
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-09-15T03:31:23.650223",
  "honest_caveat": {
    "confidence_is": "fixed in-sample model confidence, NOT a per-forecast calibrated probability",
    "correct_use": "Use for cross-country RISK RANKING, not precise within-country day-of-shutdown timing.",
    "detects_change_not_state": "This forecast scores the ONSET of a new recorded incident, not how censored a country already is. A permanently and stably blocked network generates no new anomaly, so it scores LOW. Measured 2026-07-31: China 0.015 and India 0.023 both rank BELOW Denmark 0.062 — China is probed 30/30 days across 836 domains and has logged nothing for 71 days, while Denmark is probed 2/30 days. A low score here means 'no CHANGE expected', never 'this country is free'. For standing severity use /v1/atlas/score-v2 or the censorship index instead.",
    "headline_auc_note": "Training ROC AUC 0.954 came from a RANDOM stratified split (consecutive country-days in an incident window are near-duplicates, inflating it). No target leakage: features use [date-7,date], label uses [date+1,date+7].",
    "honest_temporal_holdout_auc": "~0.85-0.90 (dual-holdout temporal gate)",
    "live_forward_accountability": [
      "GET /v1/sentinel/accuracy (rolling 30-day precision/recall; currently self-reported degraded)",
      "GET /v1/forecast/onset-skill (honest onset / forward skill)"
    ],
    "source": "ML_LEAKAGE_AUDIT.md (forecast v1/7day row)."
  },
  "interval_90": [
    0,
    0.39299999999999996
  ],
  "model_version": "v1",
  "summary": {
    "avg_risk": 0.023,
    "key_drivers": [],
    "max_risk": 0.043,
    "max_risk_day": 4
  },
  "top_features": [
    {
      "contribution": -0.0338,
      "direction": "down",
      "name": "block_rate_roll7_mean",
      "source": "model"
    },
    {
      "contribution": -0.0295,
      "direction": "down",
      "name": "month",
      "source": "model"
    },
    {
      "contribution": -0.0253,
      "direction": "down",
      "name": "gdelt_unrest_30d",
      "source": "model"
    }
  ],
  "top_features_per_day": [
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-15",
      "day": 0,
      "risk": 0.012,
      "top_features": [
        {
          "contribution": -0.0338,
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        },
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          "contribution": -0.0295,
          "direction": "down",
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        },
        {
          "contribution": -0.0253,
          "direction": "down",
          "name": "gdelt_unrest_30d",
          "source": "model"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-16",
      "day": 1,
      "risk": 0.015,
      "top_features": [
        {
          "contribution": -0.0338,
          "direction": "down",
          "name": "block_rate_roll7_mean",
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        },
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        },
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          "name": "gdelt_unrest_30d",
          "source": "model"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "day": 2,
      "risk": 0.022,
      "top_features": [
        {
          "contribution": -0.0338,
          "direction": "down",
          "name": "block_rate_roll7_mean",
          "source": "model"
        },
        {
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          "name": "month",
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        },
        {
          "contribution": -0.0253,
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          "name": "gdelt_unrest_30d",
          "source": "model"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-18",
      "day": 3,
      "risk": 0.025,
      "top_features": [
        {
          "contribution": -0.0338,
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          "name": "block_rate_roll7_mean",
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-19",
      "day": 4,
      "risk": 0.043,
      "top_features": [
        {
          "contribution": -0.0338,
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          "name": "block_rate_roll7_mean",
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        },
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "day": 5,
      "risk": 0.026,
      "top_features": [
        {
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "day": 6,
      "risk": 0.022,
      "top_features": [
        {
          "contribution": -0.0338,
          "direction": "down",
          "name": "block_rate_roll7_mean",
          "source": "model"
        },
        {
          "contribution": 0.03,
          "direction": "up",
          "name": "day_decay_t+6",
          "source": "overlay"
        },
        {
          "contribution": -0.0295,
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          "name": "month",
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        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "base_prob": 0.0035,
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "day": 7,
      "risk": 0.021,
      "top_features": [
        {
          "contribution": 0.035,
          "direction": "up",
          "name": "day_decay_t+7",
          "source": "overlay"
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        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}