Bulgaria: three horizons.
Current-regime risk at three horizons, each with its own uncertainty. These are not shutdown-onset predictions.
Generated 2026-10-08 20:20 UTC · model multi-horizon-h-v1 · raw JSON
Probabilities
Cite this forecast
Consistency check
The three horizons are internally consistent: longer windows capture at least the risk of shorter windows. This is the expected behavior — a 30-day window must contain any 7-day or 1-day shutdown.
36.4% ≤ 58.8% ≤ 95.2%
Top-5 SHAP features per horizon
| Horizon | Rank | Feature | SHAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.857 |
| #2 | block_rate_roll7_mean | -0.090 | |
| #3 | block_rate_roll30_mean | -0.046 | |
| #4 | gdelt_unrest_30d | -0.046 | |
| #5 | incident_count_7d | -0.034 | |
| 7-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.533 |
| #2 | recent_shutdown | +0.122 | |
| #3 | block_rate_roll30_mean | -0.102 | |
| #4 | block_rate_lag14 | +0.100 | |
| #5 | gdelt_unrest_30d | -0.059 | |
| 30-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.726 |
| #2 | critical_incident_7d | +0.488 | |
| #3 | risk_tier | +0.239 | |
| #4 | recent_shutdown | -0.152 | |
| #5 | month | -0.079 |
Each horizon has its own learned drivers. Positive SHAP values push the prediction up; negative values push it down. Features differ across horizons because near-term risk responds to acute signals, while month-out risk responds to slower structural factors.
Honest caveats
- Each horizon is a separate XGBoost model with its own features and its own honest evaluation. LOCO AUC across spotlight countries: 1d
0.91· 7d0.88· 30d0.84. - The previous LOCO residual bands have no validated 90% coverage for these probability scores. We withhold them until an eligible evaluation can measure coverage.
- These numbers are not guarantees. A 70% probability does not mean a shutdown is certain; a 20% probability does not mean you're safe.
- See /atlas/multi-horizon for the cross-country index, or /atlas/models for the full model registry.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/bg — 7-day calibrated forecast with drivers
- /bg — Bulgaria country profile
- /atlas/multi-horizon — all spotlight countries with 30d probability
- /v1/forecast/BG/multi-horizon — raw JSON
About this view
How the current-regime shutdown-risk level for Bulgaria reads over 1 day, 7 days, and 30 days. Each horizon uses its own XGBoost model with per-horizon feature attribution. Intervals are withheld because coverage is unvalidated. These are current-regime risk signals, not onset predictions — see the scope note below.