voidly
Upcoming elections

90-day election shutdown risk

29 national + regional elections coming up in the next 90 days. Forecast shutdown risk comes from the Voidly Sentinel model — election-period BGP withdrawals + targeted social-media throttling are the dominant patterns.

Updated hourly · last refresh Aug 19, 2026 CC BY 4.0Raw JSON

Ranked by forecast risk (highest first)

How to read these numbers

The forecast comes from the same XGBoost + isotonic-calibration shutdown model that powers /v1/sentinel/current_risk. Honest accuracy splits + live calibration drift are published at /methodology#validation.

  • High (≥50%): Forecast crosses Sentinel's deployment threshold. Pre-position circumvention guides, prep on-call coverage.
  • Elevated (30–49%): Above baseline. Watch + brief teams.
  • Watch (15–29%): Slightly elevated. Background-monitor for early signs.
  • Low (<15%): Below baseline. Standard monitoring.

Subscribe to alerts at /alerts. For per-country risk with SHAP driver attribution and similar past incidents, see /atlas/recent-changes or hit GET /v1/sentinel/current_risk/{ISO2} directly.