Is censorship rising in Africa, Asia, MENA?
A single aggregate 7-day shutdown-risk level per region — evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country forecasts. Use this for the regional headline; click through to a region for the per-country dispersion. Because it aggregates the per-country v1 forecast, it inherits the same scope: a current-regime signal, not an onset predictor.
Generated 2026-06-08 02:03 UTC · region-forecast v1 · regions API · methodology API
Regions ranked by aggregate 7-day risk
Each row is one region. The bar shows the weighted average probability (max risk over the next 7 days, evidence-weighted across the region's countries). Max and min point to the highest- and lowest-risk constituent country.
| Region | Countries | Weighted avg 7d | Max country | Min country | # ≥25% | # ≥50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Africa africa | 30 | 15.4% | Egypt EG 44.0% | Senegal SN 2.7% | 1 | 0 |
| Asia asia | 49 | 10.9% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Yemen YE 2.1% | 2 | 2 |
| World world | 148 | 9.7% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Yemen YE 2.1% | 3 | 2 |
| MENA mena | 19 | 9.2% | Egypt EG 44.0% | Yemen YE 2.1% | 1 | 0 |
| Europe europe | 39 | 4.6% | Switzerland CH 16.6% | Iceland IS 2.7% | 0 | 0 |
| Americas americas | 23 | 4.5% | Panama PA 5.7% | Jamaica JM 2.7% | 0 | 0 |
| Oceania oceania | 7 | 4.3% | Guam GU 5.3% | New Zealand NZ 3.4% | 0 | 0 |
Drill down by region
Constituent country probabilities for each region. The evidence weight column shows how much each country contributes to its region's weighted average — a country with weight 1000 dominates more than one with weight 1.
Africa africa
30 countries · 1 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 39.7% | 42.0% | 45.5% | 696 | |
| Algeria DZ | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 507 | |
| Nigeria NG | 1.0% | 2.8% | 6.1% | 72 | |
| DR Congo CD | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 1 | |
| Ethiopia ET | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 360 | |
| Gabon GA | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 3 | |
| Burkina Faso BF | 2.1% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 3 | |
| Congo CG | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 2 | |
| Madagascar MG | 1.9% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 1 | |
| Niger NE | 1.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 1 | |
| Ivory Coast CI | 1.8% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 31 | |
| Mali ML | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 1 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 464 | |
| South Africa ZA | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 166 | |
| Angola AO | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 12 | |
| Kenya KE | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 145 | |
| Rwanda RW | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 2 | |
| Libya LY | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 232 | |
| Senegal SN | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 1 | |
| Zimbabwe ZW | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 9 | |
| Botswana BW | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 1 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 12 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 112 | |
| Uganda UG | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 1 | |
| Ghana GH | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 1 | |
| Mozambique MZ | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 1 | |
| Eritrea ER | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 1 | |
| Tanzania TZ | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 8 | |
| Zambia ZM | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1 | |
| Cameroon CM | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4 |
Asia asia
49 countries · 2 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan PK | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% | 898 | |
| Uzbekistan UZ | 83.5% | 84.6% | 86.9% | 231 | |
| Armenia AM | 2.5% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 142 | |
| Philippines PH | 1.2% | 2.7% | 6.1% | 146 | |
| Kazakhstan KZ | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 723 | |
| Maldives MV | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.6% | 1 | |
| Cambodia KH | 1.0% | 1.8% | 5.5% | 214 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 1 | |
| China CN | 1.1% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 1313 | |
| Brunei BN | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 1 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 673 | |
| Jordan JO | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 257 | |
| Oman OM | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 211 | |
| Taiwan TW | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 145 | |
| Vietnam VN | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 756 | |
| Iran IR | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 870 | |
| Japan JP | 1.0% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 174 | |
| Malaysia MY | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 611 | |
| Thailand TH | 1.0% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 694 | |
| Kuwait KW | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 83 | |
| Myanmar MM | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 917 | |
| Tajikistan TJ | 1.0% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 2 | |
| Cyprus CY | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 1 | |
| Syria SY | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 230 | |
| Saudi Arabia SA | 1.3% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 419 | |
| Mongolia MN | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Azerbaijan AZ | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 271 | |
| Bhutan BT | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1 | |
| Indonesia ID | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 752 | |
| Turkey TR | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 888 |
World world
148 countries · 3 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per-country detail unavailable | |||||
MENA mena
19 countries · 1 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 40.9% | 42.1% | 44.0% | 696 | |
| Algeria DZ | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 507 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 1 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.7% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 464 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 673 | |
| Jordan JO | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 257 | |
| Oman OM | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 211 | |
| Iraq IQ | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 566 | |
| Kuwait KW | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 83 | |
| Saudi Arabia SA | 1.3% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 419 | |
| Libya LY | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 232 | |
| Turkey TR | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 888 | |
| Lebanon LB | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 210 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 12 | |
| Syria SY | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 230 | |
| Bahrain BH | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 108 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 112 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 327 | |
| Yemen YE | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 194 |
Europe europe
39 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland CH | 6.7% | 10.2% | 17.1% | 1 | |
| Norway NO | 1.9% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 1 | |
| Croatia HR | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 1 | |
| Hungary HU | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 1 | |
| Moldova MD | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 1 | |
| Slovenia SI | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 8 | |
| Czech Republic CZ | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 1 | |
| Romania RO | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 129 | |
| Ukraine UA | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 148 | |
| North Macedonia MK | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 1 | |
| Russia RU | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 1389 | |
| Albania AL | 1.0% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 1 | |
| Finland FI | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 2 | |
| Netherlands NL | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 92 | |
| Germany DE | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 171 | |
| France FR | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 196 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina BA | 2.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 6 | |
| Spain ES | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 162 | |
| Ireland IE | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Portugal PT | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 144 | |
| Slovakia SK | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 1 | |
| Belarus BY | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 628 | |
| Montenegro ME | 1.3% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 1 | |
| Poland PL | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 139 | |
| Denmark DK | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 1 | |
| Bulgaria BG | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 103 | |
| United Kingdom GB | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 186 | |
| Luxembourg LU | 1.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 1 | |
| Estonia EE | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 1 | |
| Lithuania LT | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 1 |
Americas americas
23 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama PA | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 15 | |
| Chile CL | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 84 | |
| Cuba CU | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 221 | |
| Mexico MX | 1.3% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 163 | |
| Ecuador EC | 1.1% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 1 | |
| Bolivia BO | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 3 | |
| Dominican Republic DO | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 16 | |
| Costa Rica CR | 1.7% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 1 | |
| Haiti HT | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 1 | |
| Brazil BR | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 176 | |
| Uruguay UY | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4 | |
| Venezuela VE | 1.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 916 | |
| Colombia CO | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 136 | |
| Honduras HN | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 97 | |
| Peru PE | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 15 | |
| Paraguay PY | 1.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 1 | |
| Canada CA | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 181 | |
| Guatemala GT | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 1 | |
| United States US | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 255 | |
| Argentina AR | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 142 | |
| Puerto Rico PR | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1 | |
| Nicaragua NI | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1 | |
| Jamaica JM | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 16 |
Oceania oceania
7 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia AU | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 168 | |
| Guam GU | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 1 | |
| Tonga TO | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 1 | |
| Papua New Guinea PG | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 1 | |
| Fiji FJ | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Samoa WS | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| New Zealand NZ | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 8 |
Methodology
Aggregation: Route A (cheap). For each region we pull the existing per-country /v1/forecast/{cc}/7day output for every constituent country and take an evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country max risk over the next 7 days. Weights are the number of evidence rows the country has produced in the last 30 days (floored at 1.0 so quiet countries still contribute). The headline number is weighted_avg_probability_7d.
Why evidence weighting, not population? A country's probability of a shutdown isn't a per-capita quantity — it's a yes/no event for that country's network. We don't ship a population table on the forecasting server, and using population as the weight would let India and China dominate every Asian average. Weighting by evidence volume puts more confidence on countries we actually have measurements for, which is the right epistemic move when aggregating model output.
Single high-risk countries pull averages up. If MENA looks 12% but Sudan is 80%, the region number obscures that. Always check the per-country drill-down above before citing a region figure — the “# ≥50%” column tells you how many countries are doing the lifting.
Region definitions. Continents follow UN M.49 geographic groupings (Africa / Americas / Asia / Europe / Oceania). MENA is a custom grouping — UN doesn't define MENA — composed of Northern Africa (DZ, EG, LY, MA, SD, TN) plus Western Asia, minus IL, CY, AM, GE, AZ which journalists typically don't count as MENA. World is every country in the country_geography table.
Route B (per-region model) — not shipped yet. A dedicated XGBoost on region-level features (sum of evidence, count of countries in elevated risk, etc.) would be more accurate than aggregating per-country probabilities, but it needs its own label assembly and a temporal holdout before it can replace Route A. We expect to ship it after the first month of journalist feedback on which regions get most-cited.
Calibration limits. The underlying per-country forecast model is isotonic-recalibrated only for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries (see /atlas/forecast). Countries outside that set get raw uncalibrated probabilities, so the world and oceania averages should be read as relative rankings, not absolute calibrated figures.
Which countries are in each region?
The full mapping queried live from country_geography.
Africa (30 countries)
Americas (23 countries)
Asia (49 countries)
Europe (39 countries)
Mena (19 countries)
Oceania (7 countries)
API
Supported slugs: africa, americas, asia, europe, mena, oceania, world. Each region response includes a honest_caveats array.