Is censorship rising in Africa, Asia, MENA?
A single aggregate 7-day shutdown-risk level per region — evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country forecasts. Use this for the regional headline; click through to a region for the per-country dispersion. Because it aggregates the per-country v1 forecast, it inherits the same scope: a current-regime signal, not an onset predictor.
Generated 2026-05-22 19:12 UTC · region-forecast v1 · regions API · methodology API
Regions ranked by aggregate 7-day risk
Each row is one region. The bar shows the weighted average probability (max risk over the next 7 days, evidence-weighted across the region's countries). Max and min point to the highest- and lowest-risk constituent country.
| Region | Countries | Weighted avg 7d | Max country | Min country | # ≥25% | # ≥50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas americas | 23 | 40.4% | Venezuela VE 78.9% | United States US 2.6% | 2 | 2 |
| Asia asia | 49 | 31.1% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Myanmar MM 2.6% | 10 | 10 |
| World world | 148 | 28.2% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Myanmar MM 2.6% | 19 | 16 |
| MENA mena | 19 | 26.9% | Sudan SD 79.1% | Morocco MA 3.9% | 5 | 4 |
| Africa africa | 30 | 25.9% | Sudan SD 79.1% | Eritrea ER 3.7% | 6 | 3 |
| Europe europe | 39 | 12.3% | Belarus BY 61.0% | Russia RU 3.8% | 1 | 1 |
| Oceania oceania | 7 | 5.2% | Fiji FJ 7.9% | Tonga TO 4.9% | 0 | 0 |
Drill down by region
Constituent country probabilities for each region. The evidence weight column shows how much each country contributes to its region's weighted average — a country with weight 1000 dominates more than one with weight 1.
Americas americas
23 countries · 2 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela VE | 74.5% | 76.9% | 78.9% | 1745 | |
| Nicaragua NI | 49.5% | 51.6% | 54.3% | 181 | |
| Peru PE | 9.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 38 | |
| Colombia CO | 5.2% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 166 | |
| Panama PA | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 122 | |
| Ecuador EC | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 19 | |
| Dominican Republic DO | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 26 | |
| Haiti HT | 2.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 1 | |
| Uruguay UY | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5 | |
| Costa Rica CR | 1.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 9 | |
| Jamaica JM | 2.4% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 6 | |
| Honduras HN | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 213 | |
| Paraguay PY | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 35 | |
| Bolivia BO | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 14 | |
| Guatemala GT | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7 | |
| Argentina AR | 1.0% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 174 | |
| Chile CL | 1.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 90 | |
| United States US | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 266 | |
| Cuba CU | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 242 | |
| Canada CA | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 186 | |
| Mexico MX | 1.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 210 | |
| Brazil BR | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 210 | |
| Puerto Rico PR | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1 |
Asia asia
49 countries · 10 ≥25% · 10 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan PK | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% | 932 | |
| Uzbekistan UZ | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% | 257 | |
| Thailand TH | 73.3% | 76.8% | 79.8% | 674 | |
| India IN | 76.5% | 76.9% | 79.4% | 1159 | |
| Saudi Arabia SA | 76.7% | 76.8% | 79.0% | 517 | |
| Turkmenistan TM | 74.0% | 76.5% | 78.5% | 9 | |
| Turkey TR | 60.8% | 64.7% | 70.3% | 1036 | |
| Kazakhstan KZ | 56.3% | 60.2% | 63.5% | 879 | |
| Syria SY | 58.7% | 60.6% | 63.4% | 237 | |
| Malaysia MY | 58.1% | 59.7% | 62.2% | 670 | |
| Cyprus CY | 18.2% | 15.3% | 24.5% | 2 | |
| Laos LA | 6.5% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 14 | |
| Iran IR | 4.4% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 740 | |
| Afghanistan AF | 3.2% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 18 | |
| Kuwait KW | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 57 | |
| Bahrain BH | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 137 | |
| China CN | 2.3% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 1489 | |
| Cambodia KH | 3.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 310 | |
| Mongolia MN | 2.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 3 | |
| Sri Lanka LK | 3.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6 | |
| Maldives MV | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 3 | |
| Tajikistan TJ | 4.9% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 4 | |
| Israel IL | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 95 | |
| Azerbaijan AZ | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 242 | |
| Lebanon LB | 2.0% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 185 | |
| Nepal NP | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 106 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5 | |
| Bhutan BT | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 3 | |
| Vietnam VN | 1.0% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 807 | |
| Brunei BN | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 2 |
World world
148 countries · 19 ≥25% · 16 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per-country detail unavailable | |||||
MENA mena
19 countries · 5 ≥25% · 4 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan SD | 73.6% | 76.7% | 79.1% | 5 | |
| Saudi Arabia SA | 76.7% | 76.8% | 79.0% | 517 | |
| Turkey TR | 60.8% | 64.7% | 70.3% | 1036 | |
| Syria SY | 58.7% | 60.6% | 63.4% | 237 | |
| Egypt EG | 42.2% | 45.4% | 48.2% | 731 | |
| Tunisia TN | 3.7% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 106 | |
| Kuwait KW | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 57 | |
| Bahrain BH | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 137 | |
| Lebanon LB | 2.0% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 185 | |
| Libya LY | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 269 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5 | |
| Oman OM | 1.4% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 198 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 747 | |
| Yemen YE | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 213 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 274 | |
| Algeria DZ | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 559 | |
| Iraq IQ | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 837 | |
| Jordan JO | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 265 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 569 |
Africa africa
30 countries · 6 ≥25% · 3 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudan SD | 73.6% | 76.7% | 79.1% | 5 | |
| Ethiopia ET | 62.7% | 64.2% | 67.6% | 434 | |
| Nigeria NG | 56.3% | 59.0% | 60.9% | 142 | |
| Egypt EG | 42.2% | 45.4% | 48.2% | 731 | |
| Uganda UG | 40.1% | 43.0% | 44.9% | 10 | |
| Zimbabwe ZW | 27.9% | 31.1% | 34.4% | 70 | |
| Ivory Coast CI | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 15 | |
| Cameroon CM | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 26 | |
| Tunisia TN | 3.7% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 106 | |
| Ghana GH | 3.5% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 31 | |
| Botswana BW | 1.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7 | |
| Burkina Faso BF | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 5 | |
| Mali ML | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 1 | |
| Mozambique MZ | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 18 | |
| DR Congo CD | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 11 | |
| Congo CG | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 14 | |
| Rwanda RW | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 4 | |
| Tanzania TZ | 1.3% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 33 | |
| Angola AO | 2.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 19 | |
| Niger NE | 2.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 2 | |
| Gabon GA | 1.4% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8 | |
| Madagascar MG | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 1 | |
| Zambia ZM | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8 | |
| Libya LY | 1.7% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 269 | |
| Kenya KE | 1.5% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 160 | |
| Algeria DZ | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 559 | |
| Senegal SN | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 1 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 569 | |
| South Africa ZA | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 158 | |
| Eritrea ER | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 1 |
Europe europe
39 countries · 1 ≥25% · 1 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus BY | 56.9% | 59.2% | 61.0% | 646 | |
| Netherlands NL | 5.3% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 109 | |
| Ukraine UA | 5.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 316 | |
| Switzerland CH | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 23 | |
| Ireland IE | 3.7% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 22 | |
| Estonia EE | 3.6% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7 | |
| Czech Republic CZ | 2.8% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 14 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina BA | 2.6% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 40 | |
| Croatia HR | 2.2% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 18 | |
| Hungary HU | 1.6% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 41 | |
| Luxembourg LU | 2.5% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 1 | |
| North Macedonia MK | 3.0% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 20 | |
| France FR | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 367 | |
| Monaco MC | 1.6% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 1 | |
| Moldova MD | 1.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 80 | |
| Slovenia SI | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 121 | |
| Iceland IS | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 4 | |
| Latvia LV | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6 | |
| Finland FI | 2.8% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 16 | |
| Albania AL | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 10 | |
| Austria AT | 2.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9 | |
| Montenegro ME | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 12 | |
| Slovakia SK | 3.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9 | |
| Norway NO | 2.9% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 17 | |
| Serbia RS | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 152 | |
| Sweden SE | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 27 | |
| Denmark DK | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 3 | |
| Belgium BE | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 3 | |
| Bulgaria BG | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 123 | |
| Lithuania LT | 1.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 32 |
Oceania oceania
7 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiji FJ | 2.1% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 2 | |
| Guam GU | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 1 | |
| Samoa WS | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6 | |
| New Zealand NZ | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 16 | |
| Papua New Guinea PG | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 2 | |
| Australia AU | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 170 | |
| Tonga TO | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.9% | 1 |
Methodology
Aggregation: Route A (cheap). For each region we pull the existing per-country /v1/forecast/{cc}/7day output for every constituent country and take an evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country max risk over the next 7 days. Weights are the number of evidence rows the country has produced in the last 30 days (floored at 1.0 so quiet countries still contribute). The headline number is weighted_avg_probability_7d.
Why evidence weighting, not population? A country's probability of a shutdown isn't a per-capita quantity — it's a yes/no event for that country's network. We don't ship a population table on the forecasting server, and using population as the weight would let India and China dominate every Asian average. Weighting by evidence volume puts more confidence on countries we actually have measurements for, which is the right epistemic move when aggregating model output.
Single high-risk countries pull averages up. If MENA looks 12% but Sudan is 80%, the region number obscures that. Always check the per-country drill-down above before citing a region figure — the “# ≥50%” column tells you how many countries are doing the lifting.
Region definitions. Continents follow UN M.49 geographic groupings (Africa / Americas / Asia / Europe / Oceania). MENA is a custom grouping — UN doesn't define MENA — composed of Northern Africa (DZ, EG, LY, MA, SD, TN) plus Western Asia, minus IL, CY, AM, GE, AZ which journalists typically don't count as MENA. World is every country in the country_geography table.
Route B (per-region model) — not shipped yet. A dedicated XGBoost on region-level features (sum of evidence, count of countries in elevated risk, etc.) would be more accurate than aggregating per-country probabilities, but it needs its own label assembly and a temporal holdout before it can replace Route A. We expect to ship it after the first month of journalist feedback on which regions get most-cited.
Calibration limits. The underlying per-country forecast model is isotonic-recalibrated only for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries (see /atlas/forecast). Countries outside that set get raw uncalibrated probabilities, so the world and oceania averages should be read as relative rankings, not absolute calibrated figures.
Which countries are in each region?
The full mapping queried live from country_geography.
Africa (30 countries)
Americas (23 countries)
Asia (49 countries)
Europe (39 countries)
Mena (19 countries)
Oceania (7 countries)
API
Supported slugs: africa, americas, asia, europe, mena, oceania, world. Each region response includes a honest_caveats array.