Is censorship rising in Africa, Asia, MENA?
A single aggregate 7-day shutdown-risk level per region — evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country forecasts. Use this for the regional headline; click through to a region for the per-country dispersion. Because it aggregates the per-country v1 forecast, it inherits the same scope: a current-regime signal, not an onset predictor.
Generated 2026-08-20 22:38 UTC · region-forecast v1 · regions API · methodology API
Regions ranked by aggregate 7-day risk
Each row is one region. The bar shows the weighted average probability (max risk over the next 7 days, evidence-weighted across the region's countries). Max and min point to the highest- and lowest-risk constituent country.
| Region | Countries | Weighted avg 7d | Max country | Min country | # ≥25% | # ≥50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MENA mena | 19 | 14.4% | Egypt EG 43.7% | Tunisia TN 3.2% | 2 | 0 |
| Asia asia | 49 | 13.7% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | Vietnam VN 2.2% | 5 | 2 |
| Africa africa | 30 | 8.7% | Egypt EG 43.7% | Rwanda RW 2.2% | 1 | 0 |
| World world | 148 | 8.4% | Pakistan PK 95.0% | New Zealand NZ 2.1% | 8 | 2 |
| Americas americas | 23 | 5.4% | Venezuela VE 27.5% | Colombia CO 2.6% | 2 | 0 |
| Europe europe | 39 | 4.4% | Iceland IS 11.9% | Serbia RS 2.5% | 0 | 0 |
| Oceania oceania | 7 | 4.4% | Fiji FJ 4.9% | New Zealand NZ 2.1% | 0 | 0 |
Drill down by region
Constituent country probabilities for each region. The evidence weight column shows how much each country contributes to its region's weighted average — a country with weight 1000 dominates more than one with weight 1.
MENA mena
19 countries · 2 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 39.4% | 41.4% | 43.7% | 1879 | |
| Turkey TR | 26.5% | 29.4% | 32.2% | 2763 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 1460 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.0% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 22 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 1049 | |
| Algeria DZ | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 1481 | |
| Libya LY | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 223 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 222 | |
| Kuwait KW | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 169 | |
| Syria SY | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 903 | |
| Jordan JO | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 1335 | |
| Lebanon LB | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 171 | |
| Oman OM | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 180 | |
| Saudi Arabia SA | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 1402 | |
| Yemen YE | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 283 | |
| Bahrain BH | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 125 | |
| Iraq IQ | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1716 | |
| Palestine PS | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 6 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 94 |
Asia asia
49 countries · 5 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan PK | 95.0% | 95.0% | 95.0% | 2311 | |
| Uzbekistan UZ | 60.5% | 62.2% | 64.2% | 1295 | |
| Turkey TR | 26.5% | 29.4% | 32.2% | 2763 | |
| India IN | 29.1% | 29.6% | 31.0% | 8966 | |
| Myanmar MM | 23.9% | 26.1% | 28.2% | 1718 | |
| Kazakhstan KZ | 10.4% | 11.8% | 22.5% | 1834 | |
| Iran IR | 1.0% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5735 | |
| United Arab Emirates AE | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 1049 | |
| Armenia AM | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.3% | 253 | |
| Brunei BN | 1.3% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 1 | |
| Oman OM | 1.2% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 180 | |
| Afghanistan AF | 1.0% | 1.9% | 5.1% | 32 | |
| Cyprus CY | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 8 | |
| Japan JP | 1.0% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 6694 | |
| Azerbaijan AZ | 1.1% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 414 | |
| Indonesia ID | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 2533 | |
| North Korea KP | 1.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4 | |
| Sri Lanka LK | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 56 | |
| Qatar QA | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 222 | |
| Bhutan BT | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 2 | |
| South Korea KR | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 10017 | |
| Kuwait KW | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 169 | |
| Syria SY | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 903 | |
| Tajikistan TJ | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 7 | |
| Jordan JO | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 1335 | |
| Lebanon LB | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 171 | |
| Georgia GE | 1.0% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 291 | |
| Laos LA | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 7 | |
| Malaysia MY | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 592 | |
| Taiwan TW | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 332 |
Africa africa
30 countries · 1 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt EG | 39.4% | 41.4% | 43.7% | 1879 | |
| Morocco MA | 1.0% | 2.8% | 6.1% | 1460 | |
| Algeria DZ | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 1481 | |
| Libya LY | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 223 | |
| Sudan SD | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 22 | |
| DR Congo CD | 1.4% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 366 | |
| Zambia ZM | 1.0% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 3 | |
| Burkina Faso BF | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 15 | |
| Congo CG | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 2 | |
| Gabon GA | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 3 | |
| Mali ML | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 1 | |
| Botswana BW | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 5 | |
| Angola AO | 1.4% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 4 | |
| Eritrea ER | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 1 | |
| South Africa ZA | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 7240 | |
| Mozambique MZ | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 18 | |
| Ivory Coast CI | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 20 | |
| Ethiopia ET | 1.5% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 571 | |
| Senegal SN | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 89 | |
| Tanzania TZ | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 1202 | |
| Nigeria NG | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 302 | |
| Cameroon CM | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 1340 | |
| Ghana GH | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 38 | |
| Madagascar MG | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 1 | |
| Niger NE | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4 | |
| Tunisia TN | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 94 | |
| Kenya KE | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 316 | |
| Zimbabwe ZW | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 43 | |
| Uganda UG | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 310 | |
| Rwanda RW | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 459 |
World world
148 countries · 8 ≥25% · 2 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per-country detail unavailable | |||||
Americas americas
23 countries · 2 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela VE | 25.0% | 25.3% | 27.5% | 2643 | |
| Haiti HT | 9.3% | 18.0% | 27.1% | 1 | |
| Honduras HN | 1.0% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 235 | |
| Argentina AR | 1.0% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 1021 | |
| Puerto Rico PR | 1.0% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 1 | |
| Chile CL | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 739 | |
| Paraguay PY | 1.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 10 | |
| Canada CA | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 7279 | |
| Nicaragua NI | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 11 | |
| Peru PE | 1.0% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 76 | |
| Brazil BR | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 3241 | |
| Jamaica JM | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 2 | |
| Mexico MX | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 7038 | |
| Guatemala GT | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 4 | |
| Costa Rica CR | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 1 | |
| Bolivia BO | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 27 | |
| Cuba CU | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 266 | |
| Panama PA | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 12 | |
| Dominican Republic DO | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 6 | |
| United States US | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 17579 | |
| Ecuador EC | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 9 | |
| Colombia CO | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1406 | |
| Uruguay UY | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1 |
Europe europe
39 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland IS | 5.1% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 1 | |
| Ukraine UA | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 433 | |
| Russia RU | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 9249 | |
| Norway NO | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 895 | |
| Sweden SE | 1.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 1738 | |
| Estonia EE | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 1 | |
| Latvia LV | 1.0% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 1 | |
| Moldova MD | 1.0% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 19 | |
| Portugal PT | 1.3% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 970 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina BA | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 122 | |
| Belgium BE | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 899 | |
| Bulgaria BG | 1.0% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 70 | |
| Netherlands NL | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6865 | |
| Belarus BY | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 1434 | |
| Slovenia SI | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 5 | |
| Slovakia SK | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1 | |
| Switzerland CH | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 792 | |
| Luxembourg LU | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 1 | |
| Spain ES | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 6300 | |
| Romania RO | 1.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 952 | |
| Greece GR | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 989 | |
| Ireland IE | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 906 | |
| Finland FI | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 1213 | |
| Hungary HU | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 69 | |
| Poland PL | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 1542 | |
| Italy IT | 1.0% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 1811 | |
| North Macedonia MK | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 10 | |
| France FR | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 2827 | |
| United Kingdom GB | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 8365 | |
| Denmark DK | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 827 |
Oceania oceania
7 countries · 0 ≥25% · 0 ≥50%
| Country | Day 0 | Avg 7d | Max 7d | Weight | 7d bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samoa WS | 1.0% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 1 | |
| Australia AU | 1.0% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 6605 | |
| Tonga TO | 1.0% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 1 | |
| Guam GU | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1 | |
| Fiji FJ | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1 | |
| Papua New Guinea PG | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2 | |
| New Zealand NZ | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 880 |
Methodology
Aggregation: Route A (cheap). For each region we pull the existing per-country /v1/forecast/{cc}/7day output for every constituent country and take an evidence-volume-weighted mean of the per-country max risk over the next 7 days. Weights are the number of evidence rows the country has produced in the last 30 days (floored at 1.0 so quiet countries still contribute). The headline number is weighted_avg_probability_7d.
Why evidence weighting, not population? A country's probability of a shutdown isn't a per-capita quantity — it's a yes/no event for that country's network. We don't ship a population table on the forecasting server, and using population as the weight would let India and China dominate every Asian average. Weighting by evidence volume puts more confidence on countries we actually have measurements for, which is the right epistemic move when aggregating model output.
Single high-risk countries pull averages up. If MENA looks 12% but Sudan is 80%, the region number obscures that. Always check the per-country drill-down above before citing a region figure — the “# ≥50%” column tells you how many countries are doing the lifting.
Region definitions. Continents follow UN M.49 geographic groupings (Africa / Americas / Asia / Europe / Oceania). MENA is a custom grouping — UN doesn't define MENA — composed of Northern Africa (DZ, EG, LY, MA, SD, TN) plus Western Asia, minus IL, CY, AM, GE, AZ which journalists typically don't count as MENA. World is every country in the country_geography table.
Route B (per-region model) — not shipped yet. A dedicated XGBoost on region-level features (sum of evidence, count of countries in elevated risk, etc.) would be more accurate than aggregating per-country probabilities, but it needs its own label assembly and a temporal holdout before it can replace Route A. We expect to ship it after the first month of journalist feedback on which regions get most-cited.
Calibration limits. The underlying per-country forecast model is isotonic-recalibrated only for the 30 watched censorship-heavy countries (see /atlas/forecast). Countries outside that set get raw uncalibrated probabilities, so the world and oceania averages should be read as relative rankings, not absolute calibrated figures.
Which countries are in each region?
The full mapping queried live from country_geography.
Africa (30 countries)
Americas (23 countries)
Asia (49 countries)
Europe (39 countries)
Mena (19 countries)
Oceania (7 countries)
API
Supported slugs: africa, americas, asia, europe, mena, oceania, world. Each region response includes a honest_caveats array.