Complete returned record
{
"attribution": [
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.3012,
"pair_coevents_365d": 13,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "RW",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0752,
"pair_coevents_365d": 211,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "PK",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0752,
"pair_coevents_365d": 220,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "RU",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0717,
"pair_coevents_365d": 126,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "UZ",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0715,
"pair_coevents_365d": 175,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "MM",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.068,
"pair_coevents_365d": 87,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "TZ",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0655,
"pair_coevents_365d": 93,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "KH",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0655,
"pair_coevents_365d": 110,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "OM",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0629,
"pair_coevents_365d": 71,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "CN",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0614,
"pair_coevents_365d": 88,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "CU",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0608,
"pair_coevents_365d": 199,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "EG",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0594,
"pair_coevents_365d": 94,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "BD",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-04T22:05:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0593,
"pair_coevents_365d": 160,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "BY",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0583,
"pair_coevents_365d": 211,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": false,
"trigger": "AZ",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0576,
"pair_coevents_365d": 187,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "IR",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
},
{
"p_follow_3d": 0.0492,
"pair_coevents_365d": 171,
"same_auth_cluster": false,
"same_region": true,
"trigger": "AE",
"trigger_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
}
],
"base_prior_3d": 0.1308,
"base_rate_daily": 0.04361,
"country": "IQ",
"follower_events_30d": 2,
"generated_at": "2026-10-06T06:17:06.151464+00:00",
"honest_caveats": [
"Inherits contagion-chain v1 model uncertainty (primary horizon AUC ~0.67).",
"24-48h is a TIGHT window. Most observed contagion patterns are 3-7d. This endpoint uses the shortest supported horizon (3d) as the closest proxy.",
"A country on the watchlist does NOT mean it WILL block. The score is a relative ranking; absolute calibration of the underlying pairwise classifier is moderate (Brier ~0.14 at 3d).",
"Trigger attribution is probabilistic (per-pair model output), not causal. Two countries spiking around the same time can also reflect shared upstream outages, regional politics, or coincidence.",
"Noisy-OR aggregation assumes triggers act independently — this overestimates risk when multiple triggers share an underlying driver.",
"Base-rate adjustment subtracts (base_daily * horizon) to discount countries that block every day anyway. This is a heuristic, not a matched counterfactual.",
"With zero active triggers in the last 48h, watchlist is empty by design."
],
"horizon_days": 3,
"n_active_triggers": 16,
"noisy_or": 0.7414,
"rank": 13,
"score": 0.6106,
"status": "on_watchlist",
"trigger_window_hours": 48,
"underlying_model": {
"name": "contagion-chain-v1 (pairwise XGBoost)",
"primary_horizon_auc_h7": 0.6696949571962517,
"sidecar": "[internal path]"
}
}