7-day shutdown forecast · calibrated

TW — 21% current-regime risk

Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · TW country profile →

The Voidly Sentinel model scores TW at a peak 21.2% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 6 (Fri, Jul 24). Average across the window: 18%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.

Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →

90% conformal interval: [0%, 56%] — empirical coverage 91.3% (target 90%).

Per-day risk

Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.

Per-day drivers

Date	Risk	Drivers
Sat, Jul 18	15% · Background	no drivers
Sun, Jul 19	15% · Background	no drivers
Mon, Jul 20	18% · Background	no drivers
Tue, Jul 21	19% · Background	no drivers
Wed, Jul 22	18% · Background	no drivers
Thu, Jul 23	18% · Background	no drivers
Fri, Jul 24	21% · Background	no drivers
Sat, Jul 25	21% · Background	no drivers

What drove the prediction

Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.

↑week_of_year+0.083
↑risk_tier+0.059
↑block_rate_roll30_mean+0.038

Similar past event

The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “21% risk for TW” looked like when it actually happened.

TW-2026-0006critical

disruption in TW · Thu, Jul 16

Recent evidence

Live measurements from upstream networks supporting this forecast. Click any link to view the raw data on the source.

ooniokhttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=TW&test_name=web_connectivity&domain=chat.openai.com&since=2026-07-17&until=2026-07-172026-07-17
iodaoutagehttps://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/TW2026-07-16
iodaoutagehttps://ioda.inetintel.cc.gatech.edu/country/TW2026-07-16

Honest caveats

What this forecast is — and is not

The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal: it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.

On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance.
The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window, so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill.
On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance.

Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the SHAP drivers + conformal interval — not as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →

Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.

Model version: v1@2026-06-07T02:14:25.651493

/tw — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
/atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
/sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
/v1/sentinel/current_risk/TW — raw JSON