7-day shutdown forecast · calibrated

QA — 17% current-regime risk

Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · QA country profile →

The Voidly Sentinel model scores QA at a peak 17.0% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 7 (Tue, Jul 14). Average across the window: 14%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.

Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →

90% conformal interval: [0%, 52%] — empirical coverage 91.3% (target 90%).

Per-day risk

Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.

Per-day drivers

Date	Risk	Drivers
Tue, Jul 7	13% · Low	no drivers
Wed, Jul 8	12% · Low	no drivers
Thu, Jul 9	14% · Low	no drivers
Fri, Jul 10	13% · Low	no drivers
Sat, Jul 11	15% · Background	no drivers
Sun, Jul 12	14% · Low	no drivers
Mon, Jul 13	13% · Low	no drivers
Tue, Jul 14	17% · Background	no drivers

What drove the prediction

Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.

↑risk_tier+0.027
↑incident_count_7d+0.023
↑block_rate_roll7_std+0.021

Similar past event

The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “17% risk for QA” looked like when it actually happened.

QA-2026-0288critical

disruption in QA · Sun, Jul 5

Recent evidence

Live measurements from upstream networks supporting this forecast. Click any link to view the raw data on the source.

ooniheader-manipulationhttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=QA&test_name=http_header_field_manipulation&since=2026-07-06&until=2026-07-06&only=anomalies2026-07-06
oonimiddlebox-detectionhttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=QA&test_name=http_invalid_request_line&since=2026-07-06&until=2026-07-06&only=anomalies2026-07-06
oonitor-blockinghttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=QA&test_name=tor&since=2026-07-06&until=2026-07-06&only=anomalies2026-07-06

Honest caveats

What this forecast is — and is not

The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal: it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.

On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance.
The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window, so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill.
On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance.

Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the SHAP drivers + conformal interval — not as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →

Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.

Model version: v1@2026-06-07T02:14:25.651493

/qa — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
/atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
/sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
/v1/sentinel/current_risk/QA — raw JSON