Nicaragua — 80% peak risk
Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · Nicaragua country profile →
The Voidly Sentinel model forecasts a peak shutdown probability of 80.1% for Nicaragua over the next 7 days, with the highest risk on day 7 (Thu, May 28). Average risk across the window: 77%.
90% conformal interval: [45%, 100%] — empirical coverage 90.4% (target 90%).
Per-day risk
Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.
Per-day drivers
| Date | Risk | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, May 21 | 76% · High | no drivers |
| Fri, May 22 | 74% · High | no drivers |
| Sat, May 23 | 78% · High | no drivers |
| Sun, May 24 | 78% · High | no drivers |
| Mon, May 25 | 77% · High | no drivers |
| Tue, May 26 | 77% · High | no drivers |
| Wed, May 27 | 77% · High | no drivers |
| Thu, May 28 | 80% · High | no drivers |
What drove the prediction
Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.
- ↑
recent_shutdown+0.083 - ↑
week_of_year+0.056 - ↓
month-0.024
Similar past event
The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “80% risk for Nicaragua” looked like when it actually happened.
censorship in NI · Sun, May 10
Recent evidence
Live measurements from upstream networks supporting this forecast. Click any link to view the raw data on the source.
- censoredplanetdns-blockinghttps://censoredplanet.org/data/satellite?country=NI&domain=substack.com
Honest caveats
- The model's base AUC on a time-based holdout is
0.50(random on novel events). LOCO median AUC is0.91. The calibrated number you see above is the most-honest operational figure but it's NOT a guarantee. - Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
- A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
- For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.
Model version: v1@2026-05-21T04:20:38.966951
Related
- /ni — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
- /atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
- /sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
- /v1/sentinel/current_risk/NI — raw JSON