MR — 5% risk
A seven-day view of the current regime, with drivers and supporting evidence. This is not a shutdown-onset prediction.
90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%] — empirical coverage 90.0% (target 90%).
Per-day risk
Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.
Reading this forecast & citation
The Voidly Sentinel model scores MR at a peak 5.3% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 7 (Mon, Sep 28). Average across the window: 2%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.
Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →
Per-day drivers
| Date | Risk | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Sep 21 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Tue, Sep 22 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Wed, Sep 23 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Thu, Sep 24 | 2% · Low | no drivers |
| Fri, Sep 25 | 3% · Low | no drivers |
| Sat, Sep 26 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Sun, Sep 27 | 4% · Low | no drivers |
| Mon, Sep 28 | 5% · Low | no drivers |
What drove the prediction
Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.
- ↓
week_of_year-0.053 - ↓
gdelt_unrest_30d-0.034 - ↓
recent_shutdown-0.028
Similar past event
The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “5% risk for MR” looked like when it actually happened.
Incident in LB · Date unavailable
Honest caveats
- Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
- A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
- For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.
Model version: v1@2026-09-20T02:10:49.156389
Related
- /mr — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
- /atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
- /sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
- /v1/sentinel/current_risk/MR — raw JSON
About this view
Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · MR country profile →