GW — 3% risk
A seven-day view of the current regime, with drivers and supporting evidence. This is not a shutdown-onset prediction.
Per-day risk
Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.
Reading this forecast & citation
The Voidly Sentinel model scores GW at a peak 3.2% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 4 (Mon, Nov 9). Average across the window: 2%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.
May 2026 legacy-model audit: the audited forecast mainly tracked existing blocking regimes, not new shutdown onsets. On the days a new shutdown began, its transition-row AUC was ~0.33. This historical result is not a current production scorecard. Why →
Per-day drivers
| Date | Risk | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov 5 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Fri, Nov 6 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Sat, Nov 7 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Sun, Nov 8 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Mon, Nov 9 | 3% · Low | no drivers |
| Tue, Nov 10 | 2% · Low | no drivers |
| Wed, Nov 11 | 3% · Low | no drivers |
| Thu, Nov 12 | 3% · Low | no drivers |
What drove the prediction
Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.
- ↓
week_of_year-0.062 - ↓
gdelt_unrest_30d-0.036 - ↓
blocked_count_roll7_mean-0.022
Similar past event
The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “3% risk for GW” looked like when it actually happened.
disruption in GW · Thu, Jul 9
Honest caveats
- The 2026-05-20 isotonic refit is historical. Its 810 archived pairs do not establish current calibration or onset skill.
- A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. Source-reported interval fields have no verified empirical coverage here.
- For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.
Model version: v1@2026-11-01T02:18:10.429395
Related
- /gw — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
- /atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
- /sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
- /v1/sentinel/current_risk/GW — raw JSON
About this view
Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · GW country profile →