7-day shutdown forecast · calibrated

Ethiopia — 72% risk

A seven-day view of the current regime, with drivers and supporting evidence. This is not a shutdown-onset prediction.

90% conformal interval: [37%, 100%] — empirical coverage 91.5% (target 90%).

Per-day risk

Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.

Reading this forecast & citation

The Voidly Sentinel model scores Ethiopia at a peak 72.3% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 7 (Sun, Oct 11). Average across the window: 3%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.

Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →

Per-day drivers

Date	Risk	Drivers
Sun, Oct 4	1% · Low	no drivers
Mon, Oct 5	3% · Low	Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 30d
Tue, Oct 6	1% · Low	Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 29d
Wed, Oct 7	2% · Low	Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 28d
Thu, Oct 8	2% · Low	Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 27d
Fri, Oct 9	4% · Low	Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 26d
Sat, Oct 10	3% · Low	Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 25d
Sun, Oct 11	5% · Low	Tigray War Anniversary 2026 in 24d

What drove the prediction

Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.

↓block_rate_roll7_mean-0.053
↓week_of_year-0.036
↓block_rate_roll7_std-0.024

Similar past event

The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “72% risk for Ethiopia” looked like when it actually happened.

ET-2026-0770critical

disruption in ET · Fri, Oct 2

Recent evidence

Live measurements from upstream networks supporting this forecast. Click any link to view the raw data on the source.

ooniheader-manipulationhttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ET&test_name=http_header_field_manipulation&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies2026-10-02
ooniblockinghttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ET&test_name=facebook_messenger&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies2026-10-02
ooniblockinghttps://explorer.ooni.org/search?probe_cc=ET&test_name=whatsapp&since=2026-10-02&until=2026-10-03&only=anomalies2026-10-02

Honest caveats

What this forecast is — and is not

The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal: it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.

On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance.
The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window, so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill.
On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance.

Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the SHAP drivers + conformal interval — not as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →

Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.

Model version: v1@2026-10-04T02:19:46.672537

/et — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
/atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
/sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
/v1/sentinel/current_risk/ET — raw JSON

About this view

Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · Ethiopia country profile →