BW — 4% current-regime risk
Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · BW country profile →
The Voidly Sentinel model scores BW at a peak 3.7% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 7 (Sun, Sep 13). Average across the window: 2%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.
Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →
90% conformal interval: [0%, 39%] — empirical coverage 90.4% (target 90%).
Per-day risk
Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.
Per-day drivers
| Date | Risk | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Sep 6 | 1% · Low | no drivers |
| Mon, Sep 7 | 2% · Low | no drivers |
| Tue, Sep 8 | 2% · Low | no drivers |
| Wed, Sep 9 | 3% · Low | no drivers |
| Thu, Sep 10 | 2% · Low | no drivers |
| Fri, Sep 11 | 2% · Low | no drivers |
| Sat, Sep 12 | 2% · Low | no drivers |
| Sun, Sep 13 | 4% · Low | no drivers |
What drove the prediction
Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.
- ↓
block_rate_roll30_mean-0.022 - ↓
block_rate_roll7_mean-0.019 - ↓
week_of_year-0.011
Similar past event
The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “4% risk for BW” looked like when it actually happened.
in BH · Invalid Date
Honest caveats
- Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
- A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
- For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.
Model version: v1@2026-09-06T02:10:47.912144
Related
- /bw — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
- /atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
- /sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
- /v1/sentinel/current_risk/BW — raw JSON