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Atlas · AI-ready briefings

Today's briefings

One quotable paragraph per country, stitched from the calibrated forecast, recent incidents, top model drivers, and 7-day trend. Updated every 30 minutes. Each card has a link to the raw JSON for AI-agent consumption.

Source endpoint: /v1/atlas/explain/{country} · CC BY 4.0

Iran IR

LOW · 11%

Iran censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 11% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 46%].

Top model drivers: week_of_year (↑ 0.018), block_rate_roll7_mean (↓ 0.018), risk_tier (↓ 0.016).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +80 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 5 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: IR-2026-0219 — severity critical, observed 2026-05-18T00:20:00Z.

Upcoming event drivers: Iranian Presidential Election 2026 in 7d; Iranian Presidential Election 2026 in 11d; Iranian Presidential Election 2026 in 6d; Iranian Presidential Election 2026 in 10d; Iranian Presidential Election 2026 in 9d.

See /atlas/forecast/ir for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/ir for the prediction history, and /ir for the country profile.

LOW · 5%

Kazakhstan censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 5% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%].

Top model drivers: block_rate_roll30_mean (↓ 0.084), recent_shutdown (↑ 0.074), block_rate_lag2 (↓ 0.039).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +78 percentage points over the last week.

No incidents detected in the last 7 days.

Most recent: KZ-2026-0078 — severity critical, observed 2026-05-03T20:50:00Z.

See /atlas/forecast/kz for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/kz for the prediction history, and /kz for the country profile.

HIGH · 81%

Nigeria censorship outlook

Risk band: HIGH — 81% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [46%, 100%].

Top model drivers: gdelt_unrest_30d (↑ 0.206), recent_shutdown (↑ 0.195), week_of_year (↑ 0.042).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +78 percentage points over the last week.

No incidents detected in the last 7 days.

Most recent: NG-2026-0093 — severity critical, observed 2026-05-10T00:00:00Z.

See /atlas/forecast/ng for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/ng for the prediction history, and /ng for the country profile.

HIGH · 67%

Venezuela censorship outlook

Risk band: HIGH — 67% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [32%, 100%].

Top model drivers: block_rate_roll14_mean (↓ 0.095), gdelt_unrest_30d (↑ 0.087), risk_tier (↑ 0.037).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +74 percentage points over the last week.

1 incidents detected in the last 24 hours (7 in the last 7 days).

Most recent: VE-2026-0215 — severity critical, observed 2026-05-20T20:30:00Z.

See /atlas/forecast/ve for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/ve for the prediction history, and /ve for the country profile.

LOW · 6%

Lebanon censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 6% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 41%].

Top model drivers: risk_tier (↑ 0.057), block_rate_roll14_mean (↓ 0.033), gdelt_unrest_30d (↓ 0.029).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +66 percentage points over the last week.

No incidents detected in the last 7 days.

Most recent: LB-2026-0108 — severity critical, observed 2026-05-03T20:50:00Z.

See /atlas/forecast/lb for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/lb for the prediction history, and /lb for the country profile.

HIGH · 80%

Sudan censorship outlook

Risk band: HIGH — 80% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [45%, 100%].

Top model drivers: recent_shutdown (↑ 0.159), gdelt_unrest_30d (↑ 0.147), day_of_week (↑ 0.029).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +78 percentage points over the last week.

No incidents detected in the last 7 days.

Most recent: SD-2026-0014 — severity critical, observed 2026-05-03T20:50:00Z.

See /atlas/forecast/sd for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/sd for the prediction history, and /sd for the country profile.

For AI agents

Each country's narrative is available at /v1/atlas/explain/{country} as JSON. Response shape:

{
  "schema": "voidly-atlas-explain/v1",
  "country": "IR",
  "country_name": "Iran",
  "headline_one_line": "Iran is currently in the HIGH band with a 7-day peak forecast of 89%",
  "markdown": "## Iran censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: HIGH** — 89% max...",
  "structured": {
    "max_risk": 0.886,
    "max_risk_day": 7,
    "interval_90": [0.84, 0.93],
    "top_features": [...],
    "recent_incidents_24h": 0,
    "recent_incidents_7d": 5,
    "last_incident": {...},
    "trend_7d_delta": 0.799
  },
  "sources": { "endpoints_called": ["predict_risk", "incidents_table", "sentinel_forecasts"] }
}

Cache TTL: 15 min on the worker edge, 30 min ISR on this page. For a single-call dashboard digest aggregating all signals at once, use /v1/atlas/digest.

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