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Atlas · AI-ready briefings

Today's briefings

One quotable paragraph per country, stitched from the calibrated forecast, recent incidents, top model drivers, and 7-day trend. Updated every 30 minutes. Each card has a link to the raw JSON for AI-agent consumption.

Source endpoint: /v1/atlas/explain/{country} · CC BY 4.0

HIGH · 95%

Pakistan censorship outlook

Risk band: HIGH — 95% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [60%, 100%].

Top model drivers: block_rate_roll14_mean (↓ 0.017), risk_tier (↑ 0.016), week_of_year (↓ 0.014).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +67 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 5 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: PK-2026-0663 — Internet censorship detected in Pakistan (severity critical, observed 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/pk for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/pk for the prediction history, and /pk for the country profile.

HIGH · 65%

Uzbekistan censorship outlook

Risk band: HIGH — 65% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [30%, 100%].

Top model drivers: recent_shutdown (↑ 0.025), block_rate_roll30_mean (↓ 0.023), risk_tier (↑ 0.011).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -12 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 4 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: UZ-2026-0191 — Internet censorship detected in Uzbekistan (severity warning, observed 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/uz for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/uz for the prediction history, and /uz for the country profile.

Cuba CU

LOW · 13%

Cuba censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 13% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 48%].

Top model drivers: week_of_year (↓ 0.028), block_rate_roll14_mean (↑ 0.012), risk_tier (↓ 0.006).

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 2 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: CU-2026-0249 — Sustained censorship in CU (2026-07) (severity critical, observed 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z).

Upcoming event drivers: July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026; July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 5d; July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 2d; July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 1d; July 11 Protests Anniversary 2026 in 4d.

See /atlas/forecast/cu for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/cu for the prediction history, and /cu for the country profile.

LOW · 6%

Ethiopia censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 6% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%].

Top model drivers: week_of_year (↓ 0.011), recent_shutdown (↓ 0.008), risk_tier (↓ 0.006).

Risk trending UP: forecast moved +5 percentage points over the last week.

No incidents detected in the last 7 days.

Most recent: ET-2026-0097 — Sustained censorship in ET (2026-06) (severity critical, observed 2026-06-01T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/et for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/et for the prediction history, and /et for the country profile.

LOW · 5%

Venezuela censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 5% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%].

Top model drivers: gdelt_unrest_30d (↓ 0.037), incident_count_7d (↑ 0.027), block_rate_roll14_mean (↓ 0.023).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -40 percentage points over the last week.

1 incident detected in the last 24 hours (8 in the last 7 days).

Most recent: VE-2026-0635 — Internet connectivity disruption in Venezuela (severity critical, observed 2026-07-04T18:20:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/ve for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/ve for the prediction history, and /ve for the country profile.

LOW · 5%

Myanmar censorship outlook

Risk band: LOW — 5% max forecast over the next 7 days.

90% conformal interval: [0%, 40%].

Top model drivers: block_rate_roll30_mean (↓ 0.027), incident_count_7d (↑ 0.026), block_rate_roll7_std (↓ 0.018).

Risk trending down: forecast moved -53 percentage points over the last week.

No new incidents in the last 24 hours; 3 over the past 7 days.

Most recent: MM-2026-0731 — Internet censorship detected in Myanmar (severity critical, observed 2026-07-02T00:00:00Z).

See /atlas/forecast/mm for the full calibrated forecast, /sentinel/backtest/mm for the prediction history, and /mm for the country profile.

For AI agents

Each country's narrative is available at /v1/atlas/explain/{country} as JSON. Response shape:

{
  "schema": "voidly-atlas-explain/v1",
  "country": "IR",
  "country_name": "Iran",
  "headline_one_line": "Iran is currently in the HIGH band with a 7-day peak forecast of 89%",
  "markdown": "## Iran censorship outlook\n\n**Risk band: HIGH** — 89% max...",
  "structured": {
    "max_risk": 0.886,
    "max_risk_day": 7,
    "interval_90": [0.84, 0.93],
    "top_features": [...],
    "recent_incidents_24h": 0,
    "recent_incidents_7d": 5,
    "last_incident": {...},
    "trend_7d_delta": 0.799
  },
  "sources": { "endpoints_called": ["predict_risk", "incidents_table", "sentinel_forecasts"] }
}

Cache TTL: 15 min on the worker edge, 30 min ISR on this page. For a single-call dashboard digest aggregating all signals at once, use /v1/atlas/digest.

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