UZ · per-country backtest
Uzbekistan forecast vs reality
Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Uzbekistan, plotted against what actually happened. 118 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.
Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →
Forecasts evaluated
118
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
36.4%
43/118 correct
Brier score
0.441
lower is better
Observed positive rate
19%
mean predicted 53%
Forecast time series
Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.
Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)
All 118 predictions (newest first)
| Eval date | Forecast | Pred ≥ 0.5? | Observed? | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | 54.3% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 11 | 59.2% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 10 | 66.1% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 9 | 63.8% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 8 | 43.1% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 7 | 55.8% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 6 | 41.7% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 5 | 38.5% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 4 | 57.5% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 3 | 71.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Aug 2 | 68.3% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Aug 1 | 80.8% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 31 | 77.2% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 30 | 63.2% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 29 | 63.9% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jul 28 | 60.8% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jul 27 | 62.0% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jul 26 | 62.8% | — | shutdown | ✗ |
| Jul 25 | 68.1% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 24 | 65.7% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 23 | 64.5% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 22 | 72.5% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 21 | 74.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 20 | 87.6% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 19 | 66.8% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 18 | 65.8% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 17 | 64.9% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 16 | 71.0% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 15 | 69.1% | — | no event | ✓ |
| Jul 14 | 72.6% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 13 | 76.3% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 12 | 69.6% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 11 | 75.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 10 | 73.0% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 9 | 69.5% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 8 | 68.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 7 | 77.4% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 6 | 75.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 5 | 69.7% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 4 | 73.8% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 3 | 75.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 2 | 73.8% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jul 1 | 82.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 30 | 82.0% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 29 | 79.2% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 28 | 78.3% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 27 | 83.3% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 26 | 83.1% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 25 | 86.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 24 | 85.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 23 | 80.5% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 22 | 77.6% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 21 | 63.5% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 20 | 63.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 19 | 62.8% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 18 | 65.2% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 17 | 63.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 16 | 64.8% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 15 | 63.1% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| Jun 14 | 64.7% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
How to read this
- Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
- Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
- Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
- Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/uz — current 7-day calibrated forecast for Uzbekistan with SHAP drivers
- /uz — Uzbekistan country page (current state, recent incidents)
- /sentinel/backtest — global reliability diagram + per-country comparison table
- Calibration refit writeup