Ethiopia (ET)
7-day internet-shutdown probability from shutdown_risk_v5. Trained and validated on Access Now KeepItOn STOP shutdowns (journalist-verified). Live JSON: /v1/shutdown-risk/ET.
Current 7-day probability
2.0%
Risk band
low
As of
2026-05-30
Elevated threshold
14.0%
KIO shutdowns (5y)
1
verified count
KIO recent (7d)
0
last 7 days
Probability components
The live model combines a structural-risk score (v4 = isotonic(kio_hist_5y + 2 × kio_recent_7d)) with the OONI-trajectory forecast (honest_forecast_v1); the served version is shown above. A logit-space blend (the v9 variant, sigmoid(0.6·logit(v4)+0.4·logit(hf))) that lifts within-country median AUC ~0.73 → ~0.74 is validated and auto-gated — it serves only on days it durably beats the live model, leave-one-country-out validated.
- ensemble_raw
- 0.008
- hf_prob
- 80.7%
- sr_prob
- 1.0%
Honest validation
Same validation block this endpoint returns inline — never computed at request time, never adjusted per-country.
Full-panel AUC
0.884
cross-country
Within-country median AUC
0.726
23 countries
Within-country mean AUC
0.615
paired with median
Countries ≥ 0.65
13 / 23
within-country AUC
Model honesty caveats (5)
- Ensemble of two honestly-validated models. shutdown_risk_v4 provides country structural risk (the cross-country signal); honest_forecast_v1 provides OONI z-score trajectory (the within-country timing signal). The product captures WHICH and WHEN.
- Within-country median AUC 0.73. The model differentiates shutdown-precursor days from other days within the major shutdown-prone countries (MM, IN, RU, PK, IQ all >=0.70). For low-N countries the within-country signal is weaker — sample-size limited, not model-limited.
- Country structural risk dominates the cross-country signal; OONI measurement trajectory adds the within-country timing.
- City-level / sub-national shutdowns (~half of KeepItOn events) remain harder to predict from country-level aggregates.
- v1/v2/v3 lost the signal by over-fitting; v4 captured country-identity; v5 is the minimum ensemble that adds within-country timing on top of v4.