CD · scorecard status
CD forecast scorecard on hold
Compare published forecasts with observed outcomes for this country.
Scorecard withheld · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →
Empirical scores are withheld until the original forecast issuance, full seven-day target window, and independent outcome are verified. See /sentinel/backtest for the global view.
How to read this
- Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
- Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
- Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
- Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/cd — current 7-day calibrated forecast for CD with SHAP drivers
- /cd — CD country page (current state, recent incidents)
- /sentinel/backtest — global reliability diagram + per-country comparison table
- Calibration refit writeup
About this view
Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for CD, plotted against what actually happened. 0 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.