Multi-horizon shutdown forecast
Eritrea — three honest horizons
How shutdown risk for Eritrea evolves over 1 day, 7 days, and 30 days. Each horizon uses its own XGBoost model with per-horizon SHAP attribution and a 90% conformal interval.
Generated 2026-05-21 16:19 UTC · model multi-horizon-h-v1 · raw JSON
Probabilities
1 day
1d
22.1%
90% interval [12%, 32%]
7 days
7d
35.6%
90% interval [17%, 54%]
30 days
30d
70.0%
90% interval [20%, 100%]
Consistency check
OK — monotonicP(1d) ≤ P(7d) ≤ P(30d)
The three horizons are internally consistent: longer windows capture at least the risk of shorter windows. This is the expected behavior — a 30-day window must contain any 7-day or 1-day shutdown.
22.1% ≤ 35.6% ≤ 70.0%
Top-5 SHAP features per horizon
Each horizon has its own learned drivers. Positive SHAP values push the prediction up; negative values push it down. Features differ across horizons because near-term risk responds to acute signals, while month-out risk responds to slower structural factors.
| Horizon | Rank | Feature | SHAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.669 |
| #2 | risk_tier | -0.188 | |
| #3 | month | +0.081 | |
| #4 | day_of_week | -0.066 | |
| #5 | gdelt_unrest_30d | -0.057 | |
| 7-day | #1 | risk_tier | -0.512 |
| #2 | week_of_year | -0.305 | |
| #3 | month | -0.087 | |
| #4 | gdelt_unrest_30d | -0.064 | |
| #5 | recent_shutdown | -0.045 | |
| 30-day | #1 | week_of_year | -0.259 |
| #2 | risk_tier | -0.134 | |
| #3 | recent_shutdown | -0.096 | |
| #4 | block_rate_roll14_mean | +0.047 | |
| #5 | block_rate_roll7_mean | -0.040 |
Honest caveats
- Each horizon is a separate XGBoost model with its own features and its own honest evaluation. LOCO AUC across spotlight countries: 1d
0.91· 7d0.88· 30d0.84. - 30-day forecasts inherently have wider conformal intervals (more time = more uncertainty). A wide interval is not a bug — it's honesty.
- These numbers are not guarantees. A 70% probability does not mean a shutdown is certain; a 20% probability does not mean you're safe.
- See /atlas/multi-horizon for the cross-country index, or /atlas/models for the full model registry.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/er — 7-day calibrated forecast with drivers
- /er — Eritrea country profile
- /atlas/multi-horizon — all spotlight countries with 30d probability
- /v1/forecast/ER/multi-horizon — raw JSON