Multi-horizon shutdown forecast

Russia — three honest horizons

How the current-regime shutdown-risk level for Russia reads over 1 day, 7 days, and 30 days. Each horizon uses its own XGBoost model with per-horizon SHAP attribution and a 90% conformal interval. These are current-regime risk signals, not onset predictions — see the scope note below.

Generated 2026-05-23 18:47 UTC · model multi-horizon-h-v1 · raw JSON

Probabilities

1 day

22.1%

90% interval [4%, 41%]

7 days

48.7%

90% interval [33%, 64%]

30 days

30d

70.0%

90% interval [20%, 100%]

What this forecast is — and is not

The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal: it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.

On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance.
The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window, so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill.
On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance.

Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the SHAP drivers + conformal interval — not as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →

Consistency check

OK — monotonicP(1d) ≤ P(7d) ≤ P(30d)

The three horizons are internally consistent: longer windows capture at least the risk of shorter windows. This is the expected behavior — a 30-day window must contain any 7-day or 1-day shutdown.

22.1% ≤ 48.7% ≤ 70.0%

Top-5 SHAP features per horizon

Each horizon has its own learned drivers. Positive SHAP values push the prediction up; negative values push it down. Features differ across horizons because near-term risk responds to acute signals, while month-out risk responds to slower structural factors.

Horizon	Rank	Feature	SHAP
1-day	#1	week_of_year	-0.481
	#2	high_urgency_signals_7d	+0.455
	#3	recent_shutdown	-0.432
	#4	block_rate_roll7_std	-0.131
	#5	block_rate_roll7_mean	-0.118
7-day	#1	recent_shutdown	-0.284
	#2	block_rate_roll7_std	-0.270
	#3	gdelt_unrest_30d	-0.193
	#4	week_of_year	-0.192
	#5	risk_tier	-0.170
30-day	#1	week_of_year	-0.787
	#2	gdelt_unrest_30d	+0.279
	#3	month	-0.239
	#4	block_rate_lag1	+0.233
	#5	recent_shutdown	-0.226

Honest caveats

Each horizon is a separate XGBoost model with its own features and its own honest evaluation. LOCO AUC across spotlight countries: 1d 0.91 · 7d 0.88 · 30d 0.84.
30-day forecasts inherently have wider conformal intervals (more time = more uncertainty). A wide interval is not a bug — it's honesty.
These numbers are not guarantees. A 70% probability does not mean a shutdown is certain; a 20% probability does not mean you're safe.
See /atlas/multi-horizon for the cross-country index, or /atlas/models for the full model registry.

/atlas/forecast/ru — 7-day calibrated forecast with drivers
/ru — Russia country profile
/atlas/multi-horizon — all spotlight countries with 30d probability
/v1/forecast/RU/multi-horizon — raw JSON

Probabilities

Consistency check

Top-5 SHAP features per horizon

Honest caveats

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