voidly
Atlas · closed-loop active learning

Help the classifier learn

These are the 44 recent forecasts the classifier is least sure about — predictions sitting near the 0.5 decision threshold. Each one is a high-value labeling opportunity: a single confirmed outcome here teaches the model more than ten labels on easy cases.

Click any candidate to see its full SHAP breakdown, evidence permalinks, and an anonymous label-suggestion form. No login. No personal data required. Three independent reviewers must agree before a label is promoted into the next retrain dataset.

Method: Impact-aware ranking — Settles 2009 (UW TR-1648). Uncertainty fallback — Lewis 1994. Calibrated uncertainty — arXiv 2510.03162 (2025). · Refreshed every 15 min · Raw JSON · Methodology

Does the loop actually improve the model? Honest answer: not yet.

Loop state: plumbed_idle. The loop is wired end to end (queue -> submit-label -> aggregate -> promote -> retrain) but 0 human labels have been submitted. Until reviewers label candidates at /atlas/active-learning the loop is idle by design — value depends on humans actually labelling. We surface the simulated lift even when it is negative.

0.870
Baseline median F1
0.857
After active-learning labels
-0.0124
Simulated median-F1 lift

Queue: 493 candidates · Human labels submitted: 0

  • Active-learning value depends on humans actually labelling. If labels_submitted is 0 the loop is plumbed but idle.
  • simulated_f1_lift uses PROXY labels (incident-table positives within +/-3 days, else negative), not human labels. It is an optimistic estimate — real human labels on uncertain days are noisier and the AL queue surfaces days the incident table is silent on. Treat the lift as 'is the queue surfacing learnable rows', not a promotion signal.

Live source: /v1/sentinel/active-learning-loop-status

impact = uncertainty × log(1 + volume30d) × drift14d · heuristic EER (Settles 2009)

How submissions become labels

  1. You read the evidence, pick a label, and submit anonymously.
  2. Submission lands in an append-only audit log (active_learning_submissions.jsonl). Nothing is overwritten or deleted.
  3. Once 3+ independent reviewers agree on the same candidate, the daily aggregator promotes a consensus label.
  4. The next weekly classifier retrain consumes the consensus file and gates promotion as usual.

Privacy: contact email is optional and only stored in the audit log — never echoed in any read endpoint and stripped from the consensus output. Your IP is hashed for spam-flood detection only (16-hex truncated SHA-256, useless for re-identification).

60 candidate forecasts — ranked by impact

RussiaRU
Jun 24, 2026
resolved
Probability
49%
Distance
0.6pp
Impact
0.99
unc 0.99 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Jun 26, 2026
resolved
Probability
51%
Distance
0.6pp
Impact
0.99
unc 0.99 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Jul 2, 2026
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.2pp
Impact
0.98
unc 0.98 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Jul 5, 2026
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.3pp
Impact
0.97
unc 0.97 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Jul 4, 2026
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.3pp
Impact
0.97
unc 0.97 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Jun 23, 2026
resolved
Probability
48%
Distance
2.0pp
Impact
0.96
unc 0.96 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Jun 29, 2026
resolved
Probability
46%
Distance
3.9pp
Impact
0.92
unc 0.92 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Jun 25, 2026
resolved
Probability
54%
Distance
4.3pp
Impact
0.91
unc 0.91 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Invalid Date
open
Probability
45%
Distance
4.5pp
Impact
0.91
unc 0.91 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IranIR
Jun 26, 2026
resolved
Probability
48%
Distance
1.6pp
Impact
0.90
unc 0.97 × vol 0.93 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
IranIR
Jul 6, 2026
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.6pp
Impact
0.90
unc 0.97 × vol 0.93 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
VenezuelaVE
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.3pp
Impact
0.84
unc 0.99 × vol 0.85 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
ChinaCN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.83
unc 0.96 × vol 0.86 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Jun 29, 2026
resolved
Probability
50%
Distance
0.1pp
Impact
0.81
unc 1.00 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.1pp
Impact
0.81
unc 1.00 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
VenezuelaVE
Invalid Date
open
Probability
53%
Distance
2.8pp
Impact
0.80
unc 0.94 × vol 0.85 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
PakistanPK
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
2.3pp
Impact
0.79
unc 0.95 × vol 0.83 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Jun 25, 2026
resolved
Probability
48%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.78
unc 0.96 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Jun 28, 2026
resolved
Probability
47%
Distance
3.5pp
Impact
0.75
unc 0.93 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Jun 22, 2026
resolved
Probability
46%
Distance
3.6pp
Impact
0.75
unc 0.93 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Jun 24, 2026
resolved
Probability
46%
Distance
3.7pp
Impact
0.75
unc 0.93 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Jun 27, 2026
resolved
Probability
46%
Distance
3.9pp
Impact
0.75
unc 0.92 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
NLNL
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
0.6pp
Impact
0.74
unc 0.99 × vol 0.75 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Jun 17, 2026
resolved
Probability
45%
Distance
5.0pp
Impact
0.73
unc 0.90 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Jun 18, 2026
resolved
Probability
45%
Distance
5.2pp
Impact
0.72
unc 0.90 × vol 0.81 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
NLNL
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.6pp
Impact
0.72
unc 0.97 × vol 0.75 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
NLNL
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.72
unc 0.96 × vol 0.75 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
NLNL
Invalid Date
open
Probability
46%
Distance
3.8pp
Impact
0.69
unc 0.92 × vol 0.75 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.1pp
Impact
0.56
unc 1.00 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.2pp
Impact
0.56
unc 1.00 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.3pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.99 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.4pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.99 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.4pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.99 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
0.7pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.99 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
1.1pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.98 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
0.9pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.98 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
1.2pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.98 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
1.0pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.98 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.97 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.97 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.54
unc 0.96 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.6pp
Impact
0.54
unc 0.97 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
2.4pp
Impact
0.53
unc 0.95 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
2.7pp
Impact
0.53
unc 0.95 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
2.8pp
Impact
0.53
unc 0.94 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
46%
Distance
4.0pp
Impact
0.52
unc 0.92 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Jun 25, 2026
resolved
Probability
46%
Distance
4.0pp
Impact
0.52
unc 0.92 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
54%
Distance
4.2pp
Impact
0.51
unc 0.92 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
46%
Distance
4.4pp
Impact
0.51
unc 0.91 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Jun 26, 2026
resolved
Probability
55%
Distance
4.5pp
Impact
0.51
unc 0.91 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
45%
Distance
4.9pp
Impact
0.51
unc 0.90 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
45%
Distance
5.2pp
Impact
0.50
unc 0.90 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IQIQ
Invalid Date
open
Probability
46%
Distance
4.0pp
Impact
0.33
unc 0.92 × vol 0.80 × drift 0.44
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
GBGB
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
2.4pp
Impact
0.23
unc 0.95 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
GBGB
Invalid Date
open
Probability
53%
Distance
2.6pp
Impact
0.23
unc 0.95 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
GBGB
Invalid Date
open
Probability
54%
Distance
4.0pp
Impact
0.22
unc 0.92 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
NigeriaNG
Jun 30, 2026
open
Probability
47%
Distance
2.7pp
Impact
0.08
unc 0.95 × vol 0.42 × drift 0.20
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
TNTN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
0.7pp
Impact
0.06
unc 0.99 × vol 0.63 × drift 0.09
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
MexicoMX
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.7pp
Impact
0.04
unc 0.97 × vol 0.76 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
MexicoMX
Invalid Date
open
Probability
55%
Distance
4.8pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.90 × vol 0.76 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →

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