Atlas · closed-loop active learning
Help the classifier learn
These are the 60 recent forecasts the classifier is least sure about — predictions sitting near the 0.5 decision threshold. Each one is a high-value labeling opportunity: a single confirmed outcome here teaches the model more than ten labels on easy cases.
Click any candidate to see its full SHAP breakdown, evidence permalinks, and an anonymous label-suggestion form. No login. No personal data required. Three independent reviewers must agree before a label is promoted into the next retrain dataset.
Method: Impact-aware ranking — Settles 2009 (UW TR-1648). Uncertainty fallback — Lewis 1994. Calibrated uncertainty — arXiv 2510.03162 (2025). · Refreshed every 15 min · Raw JSON · Methodology
impact = uncertainty × log(1 + volume30d) × drift14d · heuristic EER (Settles 2009)
How submissions become labels
- You read the evidence, pick a label, and submit anonymously.
- Submission lands in an append-only audit log (
active_learning_submissions.jsonl). Nothing is overwritten or deleted. - Once 3+ independent reviewers agree on the same candidate, the daily aggregator promotes a consensus label.
- The next weekly classifier retrain consumes the consensus file and gates promotion as usual.
Privacy: contact email is optional and only stored in the audit log — never echoed in any read endpoint and stripped from the consensus output. Your IP is hashed for spam-flood detection only (16-hex truncated SHA-256, useless for re-identification).
60 candidate forecasts — ranked by impact
MyanmarMM
Invalid Date
Probability
46%
Distance
4.3pp
Impact
0.85
unc 0.91 × vol 0.93 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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EgyptEG
May 22, 2026
Probability
46%
Distance
3.6pp
Impact
0.82
unc 0.93 × vol 0.88 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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VenezuelaVE
May 20, 2026
Probability
34%
Distance
16.5pp
Impact
0.67
unc 0.67 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.1pp
Impact
0.67
unc 0.98 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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VenezuelaVE
May 18, 2026
Probability
33%
Distance
17.0pp
Impact
0.66
unc 0.66 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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VenezuelaVE
May 19, 2026
Probability
33%
Distance
17.3pp
Impact
0.65
unc 0.65 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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VenezuelaVE
Invalid Date
Probability
32%
Distance
18.2pp
Impact
0.64
unc 0.64 × vol 1.00 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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NicaraguaNI
May 22, 2026
Probability
55%
Distance
4.7pp
Impact
0.63
unc 0.91 × vol 0.70 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
54%
Distance
4.3pp
Impact
0.62
unc 0.91 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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BangladeshBD
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.59
unc 0.80 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.83
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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EgyptEG
May 20, 2026
Probability
33%
Distance
17.0pp
Impact
0.58
unc 0.66 × vol 0.88 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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EgyptEG
May 18, 2026
Probability
33%
Distance
17.3pp
Impact
0.58
unc 0.65 × vol 0.88 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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EgyptEG
May 19, 2026
Probability
32%
Distance
17.9pp
Impact
0.57
unc 0.64 × vol 0.88 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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NicaraguaNI
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.80 × vol 0.70 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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SGSG
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.55
unc 0.80 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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NLNL
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.52
unc 0.80 × vol 0.65 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
41%
Distance
8.8pp
Impact
0.49
unc 0.82 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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LebanonLB
Invalid Date
Probability
34%
Distance
15.6pp
Impact
0.48
unc 0.69 × vol 0.70 × drift 1.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.48
unc 0.80 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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BangladeshBD
Invalid Date
Probability
32%
Distance
18.1pp
Impact
0.47
unc 0.64 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.83
near threshold · not yet resolved
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BangladeshBD
May 21, 2026
Probability
68%
Distance
18.2pp
Impact
0.47
unc 0.64 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.83
near threshold · not yet resolved
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VietnamVN
May 21, 2026
Probability
68%
Distance
18.2pp
Impact
0.45
unc 0.64 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.79
near threshold · not yet resolved
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VietnamVN
Invalid Date
Probability
29%
Distance
21.1pp
Impact
0.41
unc 0.58 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.79
not yet resolved · high volume country
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IndiaIN
Invalid Date
Probability
34%
Distance
15.6pp
Impact
0.41
unc 0.69 × vol 0.95 × drift 0.63
near threshold · not yet resolved
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TanzaniaTZ
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.38
unc 0.80 × vol 0.47 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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IndonesiaID
Invalid Date
Probability
38%
Distance
12.2pp
Impact
0.38
unc 0.76 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.55
near threshold · not yet resolved
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TurkeyTR
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.37
unc 0.80 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.49
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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CameroonCM
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.35
unc 0.80 × vol 0.44 × drift 1.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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MoroccoMA
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.32
unc 0.80 × vol 0.85 × drift 0.48
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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IQIQ
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.32
unc 0.80 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.44
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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QAQA
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.32
unc 0.80 × vol 0.75 × drift 0.52
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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ThailandTH
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.31
unc 0.80 × vol 0.87 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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MoroccoMA
Invalid Date
Probability
33%
Distance
17.4pp
Impact
0.26
unc 0.65 × vol 0.85 × drift 0.48
near threshold · not yet resolved
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GBGB
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
1.2pp
Impact
0.24
unc 0.98 × vol 0.79 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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ThailandTH
May 21, 2026
Probability
69%
Distance
19.4pp
Impact
0.24
unc 0.61 × vol 0.87 × drift 0.45
near threshold · not yet resolved
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MalaysiaMY
May 21, 2026
Probability
69%
Distance
18.9pp
Impact
0.22
unc 0.62 × vol 0.87 × drift 0.41
near threshold · not yet resolved
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FRFR
Invalid Date
Probability
55%
Distance
5.0pp
Impact
0.21
unc 0.90 × vol 0.80 × drift 0.28
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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GBGB
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.20
unc 0.80 × vol 0.79 × drift 0.32
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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KazakhstanKZ
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.18
unc 0.80 × vol 0.91 × drift 0.25
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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FRFR
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.18
unc 0.80 × vol 0.80 × drift 0.28
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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Saudi ArabiaSA
May 21, 2026
Probability
70%
Distance
19.8pp
Impact
0.18
unc 0.60 × vol 0.84 × drift 0.36
near threshold · not yet resolved
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GBGB
Invalid Date
Probability
71%
Distance
20.8pp
Impact
0.15
unc 0.58 × vol 0.79 × drift 0.32
not yet resolved · high volume country
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ZAZA
Invalid Date
Probability
61%
Distance
10.5pp
Impact
0.11
unc 0.79 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.19
near threshold · not yet resolved
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United StatesUS
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.07
unc 0.80 × vol 0.78 × drift 0.12
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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EthiopiaET
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.07
unc 0.80 × vol 0.81 × drift 0.10
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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CACA
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.05
unc 0.80 × vol 0.72 × drift 0.08
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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CACA
Invalid Date
Probability
65%
Distance
14.6pp
Impact
0.04
unc 0.71 × vol 0.72 × drift 0.08
near threshold · not yet resolved
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BrazilBR
Invalid Date
Probability
49%
Distance
0.9pp
Impact
0.04
unc 0.98 × vol 0.73 × drift 0.05
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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JPJP
Invalid Date
Probability
46%
Distance
3.6pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.93 × vol 0.72 × drift 0.05
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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ESES
Invalid Date
Probability
46%
Distance
3.6pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.93 × vol 0.72 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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BrazilBR
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.80 × vol 0.73 × drift 0.05
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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MexicoMX
Invalid Date
Probability
60%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.80 × vol 0.72 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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ESES
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.80 × vol 0.72 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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South KoreaKR
Invalid Date
Probability
64%
Distance
13.5pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.73 × vol 0.69 × drift 0.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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AUAU
Invalid Date
Probability
64%
Distance
14.1pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.72 × vol 0.70 × drift 0.04
near threshold · not yet resolved
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MexicoMX
Invalid Date
Probability
67%
Distance
17.1pp
Impact
0.02
unc 0.66 × vol 0.72 × drift 0.00
near threshold · not yet resolved
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BrazilBR
May 21, 2026
Probability
70%
Distance
19.8pp
Impact
0.02
unc 0.60 × vol 0.73 × drift 0.05
near threshold · not yet resolved
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PhilippinesPH
May 21, 2026
Probability
70%
Distance
20.3pp
Impact
0.02
unc 0.59 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.04
not yet resolved · high volume country
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UgandaUG
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.01
unc 0.80 × vol 0.32 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
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SudanSD
Invalid Date
Probability
40%
Distance
10.0pp
Impact
0.01
unc 0.80 × vol 0.24 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
Related
- Impact-aware ranking methodology — why we replaced uncertainty-only sorting with a 3-factor heuristic EER
- /sentinel/labeling — read-only queue view with API-key submission flow
- /atlas/changelog — model registry / retrain history
- /methodology — retrain gate logic
- Settles 2009 — Active Learning Literature Survey (UW TR-1648)
- Calibrated Uncertainty Sampling (arXiv 2510.03162)