voidly
Atlas · closed-loop active learning

Help the classifier learn

These are the 47 recent forecasts the classifier is least sure about — predictions sitting near the 0.5 decision threshold. Each one is a high-value labeling opportunity: a single confirmed outcome here teaches the model more than ten labels on easy cases.

Click any candidate to see its full SHAP breakdown, evidence permalinks, and an anonymous label-suggestion form. No login. No personal data required. Three independent reviewers must agree before a label is promoted into the next retrain dataset.

Method: Impact-aware ranking — Settles 2009 (UW TR-1648). Uncertainty fallback — Lewis 1994. Calibrated uncertainty — arXiv 2510.03162 (2025). · Refreshed every 15 min · Raw JSON · Methodology

Does the loop actually improve the model? Honest answer: not yet.

Loop state: plumbed_idle. The loop is wired end to end (queue -> submit-label -> aggregate -> promote -> retrain) but 0 human labels have been submitted. Until reviewers label candidates at /atlas/active-learning the loop is idle by design — value depends on humans actually labelling. We surface the simulated lift even when it is negative.

0.870
Baseline median F1
0.857
After active-learning labels
-0.0124
Simulated median-F1 lift

Queue: 496 candidates · Human labels submitted: 0

  • Active-learning value depends on humans actually labelling. If labels_submitted is 0 the loop is plumbed but idle.
  • simulated_f1_lift uses PROXY labels (incident-table positives within +/-3 days, else negative), not human labels. It is an optimistic estimate — real human labels on uncertain days are noisier and the AL queue surfaces days the incident table is silent on. Treat the lift as 'is the queue surfacing learnable rows', not a promotion signal.

Live source: /v1/sentinel/active-learning-loop-status

impact = uncertainty × log(1 + volume30d) × drift14d · heuristic EER (Settles 2009)

How submissions become labels

  1. You read the evidence, pick a label, and submit anonymously.
  2. Submission lands in an append-only audit log (active_learning_submissions.jsonl). Nothing is overwritten or deleted.
  3. Once 3+ independent reviewers agree on the same candidate, the daily aggregator promotes a consensus label.
  4. The next weekly classifier retrain consumes the consensus file and gates promotion as usual.

Privacy: contact email is optional and only stored in the audit log — never echoed in any read endpoint and stripped from the consensus output. Your IP is hashed for spam-flood detection only (16-hex truncated SHA-256, useless for re-identification).

60 candidate forecasts — ranked by impact

ChinaCN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
2.2pp
Impact
0.76
unc 0.96 × vol 0.82 × drift 0.97
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
BrazilBR
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.1pp
Impact
0.74
unc 0.98 × vol 0.83 × drift 0.92
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
ChinaCN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
3.3pp
Impact
0.74
unc 0.93 × vol 0.82 × drift 0.97
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
CACA
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
1.1pp
Impact
0.71
unc 0.98 × vol 0.91 × drift 0.79
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IranIR
Aug 18, 2026
open
Probability
49%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.67
unc 0.97 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.78
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IranIR
Aug 13, 2026
resolved
Probability
52%
Distance
2.0pp
Impact
0.66
unc 0.96 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.78
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
IranIR
Aug 19, 2026
open
Probability
53%
Distance
2.8pp
Impact
0.65
unc 0.94 × vol 0.89 × drift 0.78
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Aug 1, 2026
resolved
Probability
50%
Distance
0.4pp
Impact
0.59
unc 0.99 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Aug 2, 2026
resolved
Probability
49%
Distance
1.0pp
Impact
0.58
unc 0.98 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
SGSG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
1.6pp
Impact
0.57
unc 0.97 × vol 0.92 × drift 0.64
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
JPJP
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.3pp
Impact
0.57
unc 0.99 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
RussiaRU
Aug 4, 2026
resolved
Probability
47%
Distance
3.0pp
Impact
0.56
unc 0.94 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.63
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
MyanmarMM
Aug 15, 2026
open
Probability
54%
Distance
3.5pp
Impact
0.53
unc 0.93 × vol 0.76 × drift 0.76
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
DEDE
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.53
unc 0.96 × vol 0.96 × drift 0.57
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
DEDE
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
2.1pp
Impact
0.53
unc 0.96 × vol 0.96 × drift 0.57
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
AUAU
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.49
unc 0.97 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.57
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.3pp
Impact
0.48
unc 0.99 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.52
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
AUAU
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
2.6pp
Impact
0.48
unc 0.95 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.57
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
0.9pp
Impact
0.48
unc 0.98 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.52
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
NigeriaNG
Aug 3, 2026
resolved
Probability
53%
Distance
3.3pp
Impact
0.47
unc 0.93 × vol 0.58 × drift 0.87
very close to threshold · already resolved as correct
Suggest a label →
IndiaIN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
54%
Distance
3.7pp
Impact
0.45
unc 0.93 × vol 0.93 × drift 0.52
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
HNHN
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.5pp
Impact
0.44
unc 0.99 × vol 0.56 × drift 0.80
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
South KoreaKR
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
2.4pp
Impact
0.43
unc 0.95 × vol 0.94 × drift 0.47
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
ESES
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
0.9pp
Impact
0.40
unc 0.98 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.46
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
ESES
Invalid Date
open
Probability
48%
Distance
2.1pp
Impact
0.40
unc 0.96 × vol 0.90 × drift 0.46
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
PakistanPK
Invalid Date
open
Probability
53%
Distance
2.8pp
Impact
0.39
unc 0.94 × vol 0.79 × drift 0.53
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
VenezuelaVE
Aug 6, 2026
resolved
Probability
50%
Distance
0.4pp
Impact
0.36
unc 0.99 × vol 0.81 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
VenezuelaVE
Aug 5, 2026
resolved
Probability
49%
Distance
0.6pp
Impact
0.36
unc 0.99 × vol 0.81 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
VenezuelaVE
Jul 31, 2026
resolved
Probability
49%
Distance
1.3pp
Impact
0.35
unc 0.97 × vol 0.81 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
0.9pp
Impact
0.34
unc 0.98 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.0pp
Impact
0.34
unc 0.98 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
VenezuelaVE
Aug 1, 2026
resolved
Probability
47%
Distance
3.0pp
Impact
0.34
unc 0.94 × vol 0.81 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
EgyptEG
Invalid Date
open
Probability
53%
Distance
3.0pp
Impact
0.32
unc 0.94 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
MexicoMX
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
2.1pp
Impact
0.31
unc 0.96 × vol 0.91 × drift 0.35
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
UkraineUA
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
1.4pp
Impact
0.28
unc 0.97 × vol 0.62 × drift 0.46
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
UkraineUA
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
3.4pp
Impact
0.27
unc 0.93 × vol 0.62 × drift 0.46
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
Saudi ArabiaSA
Invalid Date
open
Probability
52%
Distance
2.4pp
Impact
0.22
unc 0.95 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.31
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
EthiopiaET
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
3.3pp
Impact
0.21
unc 0.93 × vol 0.65 × drift 0.34
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
KazakhstanKZ
Aug 18, 2026
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.7pp
Impact
0.20
unc 0.97 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.28
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
KazakhstanKZ
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
2.5pp
Impact
0.20
unc 0.95 × vol 0.77 × drift 0.28
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
HKHK
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.2pp
Impact
0.17
unc 1.00 × vol 0.56 × drift 0.31
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
Aug 12, 2026
resolved
Probability
48%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.14
unc 0.96 × vol 0.32 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
Aug 11, 2026
resolved
Probability
48%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.14
unc 0.96 × vol 0.32 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
Aug 10, 2026
resolved
Probability
48%
Distance
1.8pp
Impact
0.14
unc 0.96 × vol 0.32 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
SudanSD
Aug 9, 2026
resolved
Probability
53%
Distance
3.2pp
Impact
0.14
unc 0.94 × vol 0.32 × drift 0.45
very close to threshold · already resolved as wrong
Suggest a label →
KWKW
Invalid Date
open
Probability
47%
Distance
3.2pp
Impact
0.13
unc 0.94 × vol 0.53 × drift 0.27
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
PhilippinesPH
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.13
unc 0.97 × vol 0.59 × drift 0.22
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
PhilippinesPH
Invalid Date
open
Probability
53%
Distance
3.1pp
Impact
0.12
unc 0.94 × vol 0.59 × drift 0.22
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
PhilippinesPH
Invalid Date
open
Probability
54%
Distance
3.6pp
Impact
0.12
unc 0.93 × vol 0.59 × drift 0.22
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
AlgeriaDZ
Invalid Date
open
Probability
49%
Distance
0.8pp
Impact
0.11
unc 0.98 × vol 0.75 × drift 0.15
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
AlgeriaDZ
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
0.8pp
Impact
0.11
unc 0.98 × vol 0.75 × drift 0.15
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
UzbekistanUZ
Aug 15, 2026
open
Probability
48%
Distance
1.9pp
Impact
0.09
unc 0.96 × vol 0.73 × drift 0.13
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
PolandPL
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.0pp
Impact
0.07
unc 0.98 × vol 0.75 × drift 0.10
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
ArmeniaAM
Invalid Date
open
Probability
54%
Distance
3.7pp
Impact
0.06
unc 0.93 × vol 0.57 × drift 0.11
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
GEGE
Invalid Date
open
Probability
53%
Distance
2.9pp
Impact
0.05
unc 0.94 × vol 0.58 × drift 0.09
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
KenyaKE
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.1pp
Impact
0.04
unc 1.00 × vol 0.59 × drift 0.06
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
KenyaKE
Invalid Date
open
Probability
50%
Distance
0.3pp
Impact
0.04
unc 0.99 × vol 0.59 × drift 0.06
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
CameroonCM
Invalid Date
open
Probability
51%
Distance
1.5pp
Impact
0.04
unc 0.97 × vol 0.74 × drift 0.03
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
GRGR
Invalid Date
open
Probability
46%
Distance
3.5pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.93 × vol 0.71 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →
TWTW
Invalid Date
open
Probability
46%
Distance
3.8pp
Impact
0.03
unc 0.92 × vol 0.59 × drift 0.00
very close to threshold · not yet resolved
Suggest a label →

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