The Voidly Atlas Score
One citable composite score per country, 0-100. Like FICO for internet censorship. Combines our calibrated forecast, recent incident density, 7-day trend, calibration quality, and unsupervised anomaly signal into a single number with a letter grade.
Updated every 15 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Per-country
Honest known limitation
v1 of the score weights CHANGE more than LEVEL. Chronic- censorship countries (RU, CN, KP, SY) score lower than acutely-active ones (EG, IR) despite higher absolute baselines, because nothing is shifting this week. v2 (in the lab) will add a base-rate component. Until then, cross-reference with the forecast index for absolute levels.
30 watched countries, ranked
| # | Country | Score | Grade | Composition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria NG | 64.2 | C | |
| 2 | Nicaragua NI | 63.9 | C | |
| 3 | Egypt EG | 63.6 | C | |
| 4 | Venezuela VE | 63.6 | C | |
| 5 | Sudan SD | 63.6 | C | |
| 6 | India IN | 53.6 | C | |
| 7 | Uzbekistan UZ | 38.8 | B | |
| 8 | Iran IR | 36.1 | B | |
| 9 | Thailand TH | 34.4 | B- | |
| 10 | Lebanon LB | 34.3 | B- | |
| 11 | Malaysia MY | 34.2 | B- | |
| 12 | Saudi Arabia SA | 34.0 | B- | |
| 13 | Pakistan PK | 33.9 | B- | |
| 14 | Bangladesh BD | 33.7 | B- | |
| 15 | Kazakhstan KZ | 33.7 | B- | |
| 16 | Brazil BR | 33.7 | B- | |
| 17 | Philippines PH | 33.5 | B- | |
| 18 | Myanmar MM | 33.4 | B- | |
| 19 | Vietnam VN | 33.2 | B- | |
| 20 | Turkey TR | 28.1 | B- | |
| 21 | Ethiopia ET | 26.8 | B- | |
| 22 | China CN | 25.4 | B- | |
| 23 | Belarus BY | 24.7 | B- | |
| 24 | Cuba CU | 24.4 | B- | |
| 25 | Syria SY | 24.4 | B- | |
| 26 | North Korea KP | 24.2 | B- | |
| 27 | Eritrea ER | 24.2 | B- | |
| 28 | Turkmenistan TM | 23.9 | B- | |
| 29 | Russia RU | 23.8 | B- | |
| 30 | Indonesia ID | 23.5 | B- |
forecast incidents trend calibration anomaly
Composition formula
Composite formula: 40% forecast + 25% incident density + 20% trend + 10% calibration + 5% anomaly. Grade A (0-20) = open internet, Grade F (80-100) = censorship-heavy.
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Calibrated 7-day forecast | 40 pts |
| Recent incident density (24h, log-scaled) | 25 pts |
| 7-day forecast trend delta | 20 pts |
| Calibration quality (more outcomes = better) | 10 pts |
| Anomaly disagreement signal | 5 pts |
Related
- /atlas/forecast — calibrated 7-day forecast (the biggest input)
- /atlas/recent-changes — recent incidents (24h density input)
- /sentinel/backtest — calibration quality (model honesty input)
- /atlas/models — full ML model registry