7-day shutdown forecast · calibrated

Sao Tome and Principe — 7% current-regime risk

Calibrated via isotonic refit on 810 live outcomes (2026-05-20). See calibration drift → · Sao Tome and Principe country profile →

The Voidly Sentinel model scores Sao Tome and Principe at a peak 7.4% shutdown-risk level over the next 7 days, highest on day 7 (Sun, Jul 12). Average across the window: 6%. This is a current-regime risk reading, not a prediction that a new shutdown will start — see the scope note below.

Honest scope: this is a current-regime risk signal, not a shutdown-onset predictor. It reliably flags countries already in a sustained blocking regime; on the days a new shutdown actually begins its skill is at/below chance (transition-row AUC ~0.33). Why →

90% conformal interval: [0%, 42%] — empirical coverage 91.3% (target 90%).

Per-day risk

Dashed line: 50% threshold. Bars colored by risk band.

Per-day drivers

Date	Risk	Drivers
Sun, Jul 5	2% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 14d
Mon, Jul 6	3% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 13d
Tue, Jul 7	5% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 12d
Wed, Jul 8	7% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 11d
Thu, Jul 9	7% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 10d
Fri, Jul 10	7% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 9d
Sat, Jul 11	7% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 8d
Sun, Jul 12	7% · Low	Sao Tomean Presidency in 7d

What drove the prediction

Top features by signed contribution to today's risk score. Positive (↑) features push the prediction higher; negative (↓) features push it lower.

↓week_of_year-0.025
↑gdelt_conflict_tone_7d+0.010
↓risk_tier-0.005

Similar past event

The model found a similar event in the corpus. Reading the incident report tells you what “7% risk for Sao Tome and Principe” looked like when it actually happened.

ST-2026-0017critical

disruption in ST · Mon, May 18

Honest caveats

What this forecast is — and is not

The 7-day forecast is a current-regime risk signal: it reliably tells you which countries are currently in a sustained internet-blocking regime. It is not a shutdown-onset predictor — it does not reliably call a new shutdown before it happens.

On an honest forward-temporal split (train on the past, test only on the strictly-future window) the production model scores AUC 0.589 on its raw label — near chance.
The label target_7day is a 7-day sliding window, so it is 98.9% autocorrelated day-to-day. A trivial predict-yesterday baseline scores AUC 0.957 — high numbers here mean “what is blocked stays blocked,” not predictive skill.
On the rows where a shutdown actually begins (transitions) the forecast scores AUC ~0.33 — below chance.

Use it to see where censorship is entrenched today and to read the SHAP drivers + conformal interval — not as an early-warning siren. Read the full honest re-evaluation →

Calibration was refit on 2026-05-20 on 810 live outcomes — it's good for the 30 watched censoring countries but will drift if the world changes. Nightly recalibration runs at 04:30 UTC.
A 70% forecast doesn't mean a shutdown is guaranteed; a 20% forecast doesn't mean it's safe. The 90% conformal interval is the honest uncertainty band.
For long-form methodology see /methodology and the calibration refit finding.

Model version: v1@2026-06-07T02:14:25.651493

/st — full country profile with recent incidents + ISP breakdown
/atlas/elections — all 90-day election forecasts ranked by risk
/sentinel/calibration — live model-honesty dashboard + feature importance
/v1/sentinel/current_risk/ST — raw JSON

Per-day risk

Per-day drivers

What drove the prediction

Similar past event

Honest caveats

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