voidly
NI · per-country backtest

Nicaragua forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Nicaragua, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
68.5%
50/73 correct
Brier score
0.026
lower is better
Observed positive rate
0%
mean predicted 8%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 284.7%—no event✓
Jun 273.2%—no event✓
Jun 264.8%—no event✓
Jun 254.4%—no event✓
Jun 244.9%—no event✓
Jun 235.1%↑no event✗
Jun 224.9%—no event✓
Jun 213.8%—no event✓
Jun 204.2%—no event✓
Jun 193.8%—no event✓
Jun 184.6%—no event✓
Jun 174.9%—no event✓
Jun 164.2%—no event✓
Jun 153.2%—no event✓
Jun 143.2%—no event✓
Jun 133.7%—no event✓
Jun 123.0%—no event✓
Jun 115.4%↑no event✗
Jun 104.0%—no event✓
Jun 94.9%—no event✓
Jun 82.9%—no event✓
Jun 72.9%—no event✓
Jun 65.3%↑no event✗
Jun 52.9%—no event✓
Jun 44.1%—no event✓
Jun 34.0%—no event✓
Jun 22.9%—no event✓
Jun 13.7%—no event✓
May 313.7%—no event✓
May 305.4%↑no event✗
May 294.3%—no event✓
May 284.1%—no event✓
May 274.4%—no event✓
May 2631.4%↑no event✗
May 2529.6%↑no event✗
May 2454.6%↑no event✗
May 2354.7%↑no event✗
May 2254.7%↑no event✗
May 2180.5%↑no event✗
May 207.6%↑no event✗
May 196.9%↑no event✗
May 187.9%↑no event✗
May 174.5%—no event✓
May 163.1%—no event✓
May 155.2%↑no event✗
May 144.4%—no event✓
May 135.3%↑no event✗
May 124.3%—no event✓
May 115.0%↑no event✗
May 104.5%—no event✓
May 94.4%—no event✓
May 85.0%↑no event✗
May 75.0%↑no event✗
May 65.2%↑no event✗
May 55.4%↑no event✗
May 44.7%—no event✓
May 34.2%—no event✓
May 24.3%—no event✓
May 14.2%—no event✓
Apr 307.3%↑no event✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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