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Per-individual-domain 7-day shutdown forecast (top 42 domains × 50 countries)
Per-individual-domain shutdown forecast at /v1/forecast/domain/{domain}/{cc}. Shared XGBoost across all (domain, country) pairs with domain one-hot — LOCO median AUC 0.999 across 28 evaluable domains, temporal-holdout AUC 0.983, Brier 0.061 → 0.041 after isotonic. Caveat: 75% positive base rate…
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Per-individual-domain shutdown forecast at /v1/forecast/domain/{domain}/{cc}. Shared XGBoost across all (domain, country) pairs with domain one-hot — LOCO median AUC 0.999 across 28 evaluable domains, temporal-holdout AUC 0.983, Brier 0.061 → 0.041 after isotonic. Caveat: 75% positive base rate means the model is mostly predicting block-state persistence (~85% of pair-days), not novel state transitions.
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