voidly

Per-day model uncertainty surfacer: which Voidly forecasts to question today

Voidly Atlas already surfaces model confidence universally (conformal intervals on the 7-day forecast, AUC/F1 on the classifier, online ACI alpha for drift). What was missing: a single SCORE for THIS day's prediction in THIS country, so a journalist asking "is the IR forecast trustworthy TODAY?" gets one number to anchor on. The new per-day uncertainty surfacer scores 30 watched countries across 5 production models (forecast-7day, multi-horizon-1d/7d/30d, classifier v3.3) as a linear composite of five components: conformal interval width (weight 0.30), data freshness (0.20), calibration drift (0.20), sample size (0.15), and cross-model disagreement (0.15). Today's most-uncertain country is Pakistan (mean 0.4443, 85.55pp calibration drift, cross-model agreement only 0.226 — forecast says 0.95 risk, classifier says 0.01). Today's least-uncertain: Turkey (mean 0.196, calibration in spec). Iran sits mid-pack at mean 0.2122 with cross-model agreement 0.6725. The score is explicitly a HEURISTIC composite, not a Bayesian posterior; weights are hand-tuned not learned; and "uncertain" does NOT mean "wrong" — it means lower confidence. Endpoint live at GET /v1/atlas/uncertainty/{cc}, GET /v1/atlas/uncertainty/most-uncertain, GET /v1/atlas/uncertainty/info.

#uncertainty#transparency#ml-honesty#journalist-facing#calibration#cross-model

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