Hourly within-day shutdown forecast (K=6/12/24)

New XGBoost forecast predicts P(shutdown in next K hours) at hourly granularity, where the daily 7-day forecast collapses 24h of variance into a single bucket. Trained on a 75K-row country-hour panel; per-country median AUC 0.72 / 0.69 / 0.67 at K=6 / 12 / 24h on a 30-day temporal holdout. All three horizons clear the 0.60 promote floor. Honest caveat — about half the evidence lands at hour 00 UTC because OONI and CensoredPlanet are daily-granular, so hourly precision is bounded above by source granularity. Live at /v1/forecast/{cc}/hourly?horizon=6|12|24.