Atlas Score v1 shipped earlier today with a known limitation: it weighted CHANGE more than LEVEL. Russia (B− 23.8), China (B− 25.4), and North Korea (B− 24.0) all scored low despite massive baseline censorship — because nothing was shifting this week.
v2 fixes that with a base-rate-weighted formula:
| Component | v1 | v2 |
|---|---|---|
| Structural baseline (12-month censorship-weighted incidents + tier floor) | 0% | 50% |
| 30-day forecast mean | 0% | 20% |
| 7-day current forecast max_risk | 40% | 15% |
| 24h incident density | 25% | 10% |
| Anomaly disagreement | 5% | 5% |
| 7-day trend delta | 20% | 0% (moved to separate field) |
| Calibration quality | 10% | moved to separate confidence field |
Two important honesty additions:
- Censorship/mixed-mechanism incidents are weighted 3.0×; pure disruptions weighted 0.3× (filters out OONI network-outage noise that previously inflated democracies).
- Tier floors prevent chronic-censorship countries from scoring 0 due to probe-network blind spots. KP / TM / ER carry a
visibility_warningin raw_signals because tier-4 + zero observed incidents = we can't see inside.
Big gainers (chronic-blocker correction)
| Country | v1 score | v2 score | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Azerbaijan | 15.3 A | 50.2 C | +34.9 |
| CN China | 25.7 B- | 59.1 C | +33.4 |
| ER Eritrea | 23.9 B- | 56.7 C | +32.8 |
| TM Turkmenistan | 24.7 B- | 57.1 C | +32.4 |
| KP North Korea | 24.5 B- | 56.5 C | +32.0 |
| SY Syria | 24.2 B- | 47.9 C | +23.7 |
| RU Russia | 23.6 B- | 47.1 C | +23.5 |
| BY Belarus | 24.4 B- | 46.8 C | +22.4 |
| CU Cuba | 23.9 B- | 46.1 C | +22.2 |
Big losers (change-spike countries correctly de-rated)
- SD Sudan: 64.5 C → 30.2 B (−34.3pts) — low chronic baseline, recent spike was a noise event
- BR Brazil: 59.4 C → 37.9 B (−21.5pts)
- MY Malaysia: 59.2 C → 40.5 B (−18.7pts)
- PH Philippines: 59.9 C → 43.8 B (−16.1pts)
Top 10 leaderboard now
- IR Iran — 77.4 F (was #4 D in v1)
- PK Pakistan — 70.9 D
- EG Egypt — 69.4 D
- UZ Uzbekistan — 69.1 D
- VE Venezuela — 63.6 D
- VN Vietnam — 59.2 C
- CN China — 59.1 C
- SA Saudi Arabia — 59.1 C
- LB Lebanon — 57.8 C
- MM Myanmar — 57.1 C
Honest gap to the promote criteria
Decision targets: RU/CN/KP/BY should hit D+ (≥65). v2 gets them into the C cluster (47-59) — clearly elevated from v1's B-, but still below D. To push them past 65 strictly would require ≥58% tier weight, which crosses from "rebalanced composite" into "tier with decoration." Holding v2 as experimental until grade bands are widened (e.g. C 40-55, D 55-70, F 70+).
Live at
GET /v1/atlas/score-v2 — leaderboard (≥experimental)
GET /v1/atlas/score-v2/IR — single country breakdown
GET /v1/atlas/score — v1 still the default