voidly
VN · per-country backtest

Vietnam forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Vietnam, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
63.0%
46/73 correct
Brier score
0.338
lower is better
Observed positive rate
36%
mean predicted 7%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 2812.5%↑shutdown✓
Jun 275.7%↑shutdown✓
Jun 267.1%↑shutdown✓
Jun 254.0%—no event✓
Jun 244.7%—no event✓
Jun 234.7%—no event✓
Jun 226.4%↑no event✗
Jun 215.0%↑no event✗
Jun 204.8%—no event✓
Jun 194.8%—no event✓
Jun 184.1%—no event✓
Jun 172.7%—no event✓
Jun 163.9%—no event✓
Jun 152.3%—no event✓
Jun 144.1%—no event✓
Jun 133.2%—no event✓
Jun 123.5%—no event✓
Jun 115.2%↑no event✗
Jun 105.4%↑no event✗
Jun 92.4%—no event✓
Jun 85.1%↑no event✗
Jun 75.4%↑no event✗
Jun 63.9%—shutdown✗
Jun 55.7%↑shutdown✓
Jun 45.1%↑shutdown✓
Jun 35.0%↑shutdown✓
Jun 24.2%—shutdown✗
Jun 14.9%—shutdown✗
May 315.3%↑shutdown✓
May 303.3%—no event✓
May 294.3%—no event✓
May 284.0%—no event✓
May 274.2%—no event✓
May 264.2%—no event✓
May 254.1%—no event✓
May 2459.6%↑no event✗
May 2361.1%↑no event✗
May 225.9%↑no event✗
May 2168.2%↑no event✗
May 207.8%↑no event✗
May 197.6%↑no event✗
May 187.0%↑no event✗
May 174.3%—no event✓
May 164.9%—no event✓
May 154.3%—no event✓
May 144.1%—no event✓
May 133.4%—no event✓
May 123.7%—no event✓
May 113.3%—no event✓
May 103.8%—no event✓
May 94.0%—no event✓
May 82.6%—no event✓
May 74.5%—no event✓
May 62.7%—shutdown✗
May 54.0%—shutdown✗
May 43.3%—shutdown✗
May 35.0%↑shutdown✓
May 24.7%—shutdown✗
May 14.8%—shutdown✗
Apr 305.5%↑shutdown✓

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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