voidly
TM · per-country backtest

Turkmenistan forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Turkmenistan, plotted against what actually happened. 118 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
118
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
78.8%
93/118 correct
Brier score
0.062
lower is better
Observed positive rate
6%
mean predicted 4%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Aug 12

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 118 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Aug 120.1%—no event✓
Aug 110.1%—no event✓
Aug 100.1%—no event✓
Aug 90.1%—no event✓
Aug 80.1%—no event✓
Aug 70.1%—no event✓
Aug 60.1%—no event✓
Aug 50.1%—no event✓
Aug 40.1%—no event✓
Aug 30.1%—no event✓
Aug 20.1%—no event✓
Aug 10.1%—no event✓
Jul 310.1%—no event✓
Jul 300.1%—no event✓
Jul 290.1%—no event✓
Jul 280.1%—no event✓
Jul 270.1%—no event✓
Jul 260.1%—no event✓
Jul 250.1%—no event✓
Jul 240.1%—no event✓
Jul 230.1%—no event✓
Jul 220.1%—no event✓
Jul 210.1%—no event✓
Jul 200.1%—no event✓
Jul 190.1%—no event✓
Jul 180.1%—no event✓
Jul 170.1%—no event✓
Jul 160.1%—no event✓
Jul 150.1%—no event✓
Jul 140.1%—no event✓
Jul 130.1%—no event✓
Jul 120.1%—no event✓
Jul 110.1%—no event✓
Jul 100.1%—no event✓
Jul 90.1%—no event✓
Jul 80.1%—no event✓
Jul 70.1%—no event✓
Jul 60.1%—no event✓
Jul 50.1%—no event✓
Jul 40.1%—no event✓
Jul 30.1%—no event✓
Jul 20.1%—no event✓
Jul 10.1%—no event✓
Jun 300.1%—no event✓
Jun 290.1%—no event✓
Jun 280.1%—no event✓
Jun 270.1%—no event✓
Jun 260.1%—no event✓
Jun 250.1%—no event✓
Jun 240.1%—no event✓
Jun 230.1%—no event✓
Jun 220.1%—no event✓
Jun 214.8%—no event✓
Jun 204.3%—no event✓
Jun 194.0%—no event✓
Jun 184.8%—no event✓
Jun 174.9%—no event✓
Jun 164.3%—no event✓
Jun 154.1%—no event✓
Jun 143.9%—no event✓

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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