voidly
TH · per-country backtest

Thailand forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Thailand, plotted against what actually happened. 118 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
118
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
65.3%
77/118 correct
Brier score
0.220
lower is better
Observed positive rate
22%
mean predicted 5%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Aug 12

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 118 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Aug 120.6%—no event✓
Aug 110.3%—no event✓
Aug 100.3%—no event✓
Aug 91.5%—no event✓
Aug 80.9%—no event✓
Aug 70.6%—no event✓
Aug 60.8%—no event✓
Aug 52.3%—no event✓
Aug 43.8%—no event✓
Aug 33.7%—no event✓
Aug 23.5%—no event✓
Aug 11.1%—no event✓
Jul 311.5%—no event✓
Jul 301.5%—no event✓
Jul 291.8%—no event✓
Jul 282.4%—no event✓
Jul 272.2%—no event✓
Jul 261.6%—no event✓
Jul 251.8%—no event✓
Jul 241.3%—no event✓
Jul 231.5%—no event✓
Jul 221.7%—no event✓
Jul 211.4%—shutdown✗
Jul 205.5%—shutdown✗
Jul 191.4%—shutdown✗
Jul 180.5%—shutdown✗
Jul 171.1%—shutdown✗
Jul 161.2%—no event✓
Jul 152.1%—no event✓
Jul 142.1%—no event✓
Jul 132.4%—no event✓
Jul 121.6%—no event✓
Jul 112.0%—no event✓
Jul 102.9%—no event✓
Jul 92.8%—no event✓
Jul 85.1%—no event✓
Jul 72.6%—no event✓
Jul 61.8%—no event✓
Jul 52.2%—no event✓
Jul 41.9%—no event✓
Jul 32.2%—no event✓
Jul 21.9%—no event✓
Jul 14.2%—no event✓
Jun 302.1%—no event✓
Jun 292.4%—no event✓
Jun 281.8%—no event✓
Jun 271.6%—no event✓
Jun 261.9%—no event✓
Jun 251.7%—no event✓
Jun 241.8%—no event✓
Jun 231.8%—no event✓
Jun 221.8%—no event✓
Jun 213.6%—no event✓
Jun 205.1%—no event✓
Jun 193.3%—no event✓
Jun 183.0%—no event✓
Jun 175.0%—no event✓
Jun 164.6%—no event✓
Jun 155.7%↑no event✗
Jun 145.1%↑no event✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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