voidly
SD · per-country backtest

Sudan forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Sudan, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
67.1%
49/73 correct
Brier score
0.096
lower is better
Observed positive rate
10%
mean predicted 18%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 2866.4%↑no event✗
Jun 2766.4%↑no event✗
Jun 2666.4%↑no event✗
Jun 2570.1%↑no event✗
Jun 2470.1%↑no event✗
Jun 2378.4%↑no event✗
Jun 2275.2%—no event✓
Jun 214.2%—no event✓
Jun 205.4%—no event✓
Jun 196.1%—no event✓
Jun 185.5%—no event✓
Jun 174.9%—no event✓
Jun 165.2%↑no event✗
Jun 155.1%↑no event✗
Jun 143.3%—no event✓
Jun 134.2%—no event✓
Jun 124.5%—no event✓
Jun 114.9%—no event✓
Jun 105.6%↑no event✗
Jun 94.6%—no event✓
Jun 84.1%—no event✓
Jun 75.3%↑no event✗
Jun 65.1%↑no event✗
Jun 53.3%—no event✓
Jun 44.7%—no event✓
Jun 35.0%↑no event✗
Jun 25.2%↑no event✗
Jun 14.9%—no event✓
May 3145.2%↑shutdown✓
May 3044.4%↑shutdown✓
May 2948.1%↑shutdown✓
May 2848.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2745.5%↑shutdown✓
May 2661.7%↑shutdown✓
May 2561.0%↑shutdown✓
May 2460.1%↑no event✗
May 2379.1%↑no event✗
May 2217.6%↑no event✗
May 2182.0%↑no event✗
May 205.3%↑no event✗
May 197.2%↑no event✗
May 187.2%↑no event✗
May 174.3%—no event✓
May 164.5%—no event✓
May 153.8%—no event✓
May 144.2%—no event✓
May 134.6%—no event✓
May 123.1%—no event✓
May 114.2%—no event✓
May 104.0%—no event✓
May 94.1%—no event✓
May 84.8%—no event✓
May 75.2%↑no event✗
May 64.7%—no event✓
May 54.6%—no event✓
May 45.1%↑no event✗
May 34.5%—no event✓
May 24.8%—no event✓
May 14.5%—no event✓
Apr 305.1%↑no event✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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