voidly
RU · per-country backtest

Russia forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Russia, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
63.0%
46/73 correct
Brier score
0.370
lower is better
Observed positive rate
44%
mean predicted 9%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 2867.2%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2762.9%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2650.6%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2554.3%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2449.4%↑no event✗
Jun 2348.0%↑no event✗
Jun 2258.8%↑no event✗
Jun 214.5%—no event✓
Jun 202.4%—no event✓
Jun 194.9%—no event✓
Jun 182.2%—no event✓
Jun 174.4%—no event✓
Jun 163.2%—no event✓
Jun 153.5%—no event✓
Jun 143.7%—no event✓
Jun 134.8%—no event✓
Jun 125.0%↑no event✗
Jun 114.9%—no event✓
Jun 104.5%—no event✓
Jun 94.7%—no event✓
Jun 85.0%↑no event✗
Jun 73.2%—no event✓
Jun 64.2%—no event✓
Jun 55.2%↑no event✗
Jun 43.6%—no event✓
Jun 34.8%—no event✓
Jun 23.9%—no event✓
Jun 14.8%—no event✓
May 313.5%—shutdown✗
May 304.5%—shutdown✗
May 294.1%—shutdown✗
May 284.2%—shutdown✗
May 275.4%↑shutdown✓
May 263.6%—shutdown✗
May 255.1%↑shutdown✓
May 245.3%↑no event✗
May 233.6%—shutdown✗
May 223.4%—shutdown✗
May 214.8%—shutdown✗
May 205.3%↑shutdown✓
May 196.4%↑shutdown✓
May 186.2%↑shutdown✓
May 173.3%—shutdown✗
May 163.4%—no event✓
May 155.1%↑no event✗
May 144.4%—no event✓
May 134.4%—no event✓
May 123.9%—no event✓
May 114.7%—no event✓
May 103.5%—no event✓
May 94.8%—no event✓
May 82.8%—no event✓
May 75.1%↑no event✗
May 65.4%↑no event✗
May 56.6%↑no event✗
May 48.2%↑no event✗
May 33.8%—no event✓
May 24.0%—no event✓
May 14.5%—no event✓
Apr 306.2%↑shutdown✓

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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