voidly
PH · per-country backtest

Philippines forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Philippines, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
72.6%
53/73 correct
Brier score
0.009
lower is better
Observed positive rate
0%
mean predicted 5%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 284.4%—no event✓
Jun 275.6%↑no event✗
Jun 265.4%↑no event✗
Jun 255.5%↑no event✗
Jun 246.1%↑no event✗
Jun 235.2%↑no event✗
Jun 224.0%—no event✓
Jun 215.9%↑no event✗
Jun 204.2%—no event✓
Jun 193.7%—no event✓
Jun 183.1%—no event✓
Jun 175.5%↑no event✗
Jun 165.9%↑no event✗
Jun 155.1%↑no event✗
Jun 144.9%—no event✓
Jun 133.9%—no event✓
Jun 125.0%↑no event✗
Jun 114.8%—no event✓
Jun 105.5%↑no event✗
Jun 93.9%—no event✓
Jun 86.1%↑no event✗
Jun 75.2%↑no event✗
Jun 62.9%—no event✓
Jun 52.9%—no event✓
Jun 45.3%↑no event✗
Jun 33.7%—no event✓
Jun 24.6%—no event✓
Jun 14.6%—no event✓
May 314.0%—no event✓
May 304.4%—no event✓
May 294.3%—no event✓
May 283.6%—no event✓
May 273.8%—no event✓
May 263.5%—no event✓
May 254.8%—no event✓
May 244.9%—no event✓
May 233.8%—no event✓
May 224.8%—no event✓
May 2170.3%↑no event✗
May 203.6%—no event✓
May 195.0%↑no event✗
May 185.5%↑no event✗
May 174.1%—no event✓
May 163.1%—no event✓
May 154.6%—no event✓
May 144.1%—no event✓
May 134.4%—no event✓
May 123.9%—no event✓
May 114.0%—no event✓
May 103.7%—no event✓
May 94.4%—no event✓
May 84.3%—no event✓
May 73.5%—no event✓
May 63.3%—no event✓
May 54.6%—no event✓
May 44.2%—no event✓
May 34.5%—no event✓
May 24.7%—no event✓
May 13.9%—no event✓
Apr 303.0%—no event✓

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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