voidly
MY · per-country backtest

Malaysia forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Malaysia, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
69.9%
51/73 correct
Brier score
0.133
lower is better
Observed positive rate
12%
mean predicted 7%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 285.7%—no event✓
Jun 274.4%—no event✓
Jun 264.4%—no event✓
Jun 253.4%—no event✓
Jun 244.2%—no event✓
Jun 233.9%—no event✓
Jun 224.5%—no event✓
Jun 214.1%—no event✓
Jun 204.1%—no event✓
Jun 195.7%—no event✓
Jun 184.0%—no event✓
Jun 174.6%—no event✓
Jun 165.1%↑no event✗
Jun 154.1%—no event✓
Jun 144.6%—no event✓
Jun 134.5%—no event✓
Jun 125.2%↑no event✗
Jun 113.7%—no event✓
Jun 105.3%↑no event✗
Jun 93.8%—no event✓
Jun 83.3%—no event✓
Jun 72.6%—no event✓
Jun 64.6%—no event✓
Jun 54.0%—no event✓
Jun 43.9%—no event✓
Jun 33.8%—no event✓
Jun 24.8%—no event✓
Jun 16.3%↑no event✗
May 313.2%—no event✓
May 304.5%—no event✓
May 293.9%—no event✓
May 283.9%—no event✓
May 275.2%↑no event✗
May 264.2%—no event✓
May 253.8%—no event✓
May 2461.3%↑no event✗
May 2362.8%↑no event✗
May 2216.2%↑no event✗
May 2168.9%↑no event✗
May 205.6%↑no event✗
May 197.5%↑no event✗
May 187.6%↑no event✗
May 174.8%—no event✓
May 163.2%—no event✓
May 153.9%—no event✓
May 143.6%—no event✓
May 132.7%—no event✓
May 124.0%—no event✓
May 112.7%—no event✓
May 104.3%—no event✓
May 93.5%—no event✓
May 83.3%—no event✓
May 73.1%—no event✓
May 64.7%—no event✓
May 54.6%—no event✓
May 44.1%—no event✓
May 34.8%—no event✓
May 23.2%—shutdown✗
May 13.6%—shutdown✗
Apr 303.3%—shutdown✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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