voidly
MM · per-country backtest

Myanmar forecast vs reality

Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for Myanmar, plotted against what actually happened. 73 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.

Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →

Forecasts evaluated
73
since Apr 17
Accuracy @ 0.5
52.1%
38/73 correct
Brier score
0.310
lower is better
Observed positive rate
34%
mean predicted 10%

Forecast time series

Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.

0.000.250.500.751.00threshold 0.50Apr 17Jun 28

Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)

All 73 predictions (newest first)

Eval dateForecastPred ≥ 0.5?Observed?Correct?
Jun 2846.5%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2746.1%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2658.8%↑shutdown✓
Jun 2548.2%↑no event✗
Jun 2446.3%↑no event✗
Jun 2356.5%↑no event✗
Jun 2246.4%↑no event✗
Jun 212.7%—no event✓
Jun 203.8%—no event✓
Jun 194.4%—no event✓
Jun 183.8%—no event✓
Jun 174.1%—no event✓
Jun 164.4%—no event✓
Jun 153.6%—no event✓
Jun 143.1%—no event✓
Jun 134.7%—no event✓
Jun 124.4%—no event✓
Jun 114.4%—no event✓
Jun 104.4%—no event✓
Jun 93.6%—no event✓
Jun 84.9%—no event✓
Jun 74.9%—no event✓
Jun 63.2%—no event✓
Jun 53.9%—no event✓
Jun 44.8%—shutdown✗
Jun 34.2%—shutdown✗
Jun 23.2%—shutdown✗
Jun 13.9%—shutdown✗
May 313.8%—shutdown✗
May 303.4%—shutdown✗
May 294.2%—shutdown✗
May 285.0%↑no event✗
May 275.4%↑no event✗
May 263.7%—no event✓
May 254.9%—no event✓
May 243.9%—no event✓
May 232.9%—no event✓
May 225.4%↑no event✗
May 2181.7%↑no event✗
May 206.5%↑no event✗
May 196.3%↑no event✗
May 187.7%↑no event✗
May 175.1%↑no event✗
May 163.1%—no event✓
May 153.2%—no event✓
May 145.0%↑no event✗
May 134.2%—no event✓
May 122.4%—no event✓
May 113.5%—no event✓
May 105.1%↑no event✗
May 95.5%↑no event✗
May 85.0%↑no event✗
May 73.9%—no event✓
May 63.4%—no event✓
May 53.0%—no event✓
May 45.0%↑no event✗
May 33.7%—no event✓
May 23.1%—no event✓
May 12.7%—shutdown✗
Apr 304.1%—shutdown✗

How to read this

  • Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
  • Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
  • Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
  • Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.

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