KW · per-country backtest
KW forecast vs reality
Every Voidly Sentinel shutdown-risk forecast for KW, plotted against what actually happened. 2 (predicted, observed) pairs from the rolling 30-day evaluation window.
Updated every 30 min · CC BY 4.0 · Raw JSON · Current forecast →
Forecasts evaluated
2
since May 27
Accuracy @ 0.5
0.0%
0/2 correct
Brier score
0.325
lower is better
Observed positive rate
0%
mean predicted 57%
Forecast time series
Blue line: forecast probability. Green ✓ markers: forecast was right. Red ✗ markers: forecast was wrong. Dashed line at 0.5 is the binary decision threshold.
Y axis: forecast probability · Faint tick: distance to observed outcome (0 or 1)
All 2 predictions (newest first)
| Eval date | Forecast | Pred ≥ 0.5? | Observed? | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 27 | 60.0% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
| May 27 | 53.9% | ↑ | no event | ✗ |
How to read this
- Each row is one historical forecast. We made the prediction at eval_date, then waited the 7-day horizon, then graded against the observed outcome.
- Forecast % is the calibrated probability we published that day. Post-recalibration (2026-05-20) these now match actual observed rates much better — see the refit finding.
- Pred ≥ 0.5 shows the binary alert decision. Note we usually fire alerts at a lower threshold (see /v1/sentinel/global_heatmap for the live cutoff) — the 0.5 column here is for backtest scoring consistency with the global confusion matrix.
- Correct = both (pred ≥ 0.5) and (observed) agree.
Related
- /atlas/forecast/kw — current 7-day calibrated forecast for KW with SHAP drivers
- /kw — KW country page (current state, recent incidents)
- /sentinel/backtest — global reliability diagram + per-country comparison table
- Calibration refit writeup